Yurii D. KONONOVMelentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation kononov@isem.irk.ru ORCID id: not available
Dmitrii Yu. KONONOVMelentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russian Federation stranger72@bk.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. The article considers strategic threats to the economic and energy security of the country and regions. Objectives. The aim is to substantiate the possibility and method of numerical assessment of the significance of price threat to energy security. Methods. We employed the systems analysis of relationship between energy and economics, using economic and mathematical models. Results. We proposed indicators characterizing price threats for consumers and producers of electricity, provided methods of numerical assessment of values of both individual indicators and their combination, presented the results of experimental calculations reflecting the impact of different scenario conditions on the average and marginal cost of electricity. Conclusions. Forecasts of the dynamics of electricity cost and numerical assessment of possible negative effect of electricity price hike should become an important component of the comprehensive analysis of the state of energy security.
Keywords: energy security, indicator-based analysis, cost of electricity, forecasting
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