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National Interests: Priorities and Security

Percentiles and a cyclic approach for the methodology of scenario predictive planning of promising specialization of the region

Vol. 20, Iss. 3, MARCH 2024

Received: 16 August 2021

Received in revised form: 26 August 2021

Accepted: 7 September 2021

Available online: 15 March 2024


JEL Classification: C22, C53, C63, E32, R58

Pages: 490–515


Galina A. KHMELEVA Samara State University of Economics (SSEU), Samara, Russian Federation


Valerii K. SEMENYCHEV Samara National Research University (Samara University), Samara, Russian Federation


Anastasiya A. KOROBETSKAYA System Integrator Webzavod, Samara, Russian Federation


Subject. This article deals with the problems of development of promising sectors of the region's economy.
Objectives. The article aims to assess the scenarios of regional industry changes considering a case study of the automotive industry.
Methods. For the study, we used the bootstrap and wavelet transform techniques.
Results. The article describes the inertial, pessimistic (5% percentile) and optimistic (95% percentile) scenarios for the development of the automotive industry and shows the range of possible deviations of industry dynamics in the case of the influence of external and internal factors.
Conclusions. The proposed methodology and tools make it possible to fine-tune the forecast of industry dynamics, take into account its possible deviations from a predetermined path during the year, and put management decisions into proactive impact effect.

Keywords: scenario forecast planning, wavelet, cycle, percentile, percentile forecasting


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