Yurii A. NIKITINMilitary Educational Institution of Logistics named after General of the Army A.V. Khrulyov of Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation (Military Academy of Logistics), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation vatt-spb@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Kirill A. KARPENKOMozhaisky Military Space Academy of Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation (Mozhaisky MSA), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation kirill_karpenko_2@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. This article deals with the issues of strengthening Russia's defense capability. Objectives. The article aims to develop methods for forecasting the risks arising in the process of implementing the State Defense Order. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of mathematical modeling. Results. The article presents an author-developed risk forecasting model, which can help optimize the use of financial and technological resources in the process of developing rocket and space technology and equipment. Conclusions. The results of the study can be taken into account when designing defense contractors' development programmes.
Astashenko A.N., Bychkov A.V., Davydyants D.E. [Innovative method of rationale for choice of the designer based on the risk tolerance assessment in architectural and construction design]. Vestnik Rossiiskogo novogo universiteta. Seriya: Chelovek i obshchestvo = Bulletin of Russian New University. Human and Society, 2023, no. 1, pp. 66–76. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Bychkov A.V., Zubova L.V. [Methodology for assessing the level of risk tolerance of construction industry enterprises in the supervisory support of investment and construction projects in the interests of the Ministry of Defense]. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava = Journal of Altai Academy of Economics and Law, 2023, no. 2-2, pp. 187–193. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Vikulov S.F., Khrustalev E.Yu. [Methodological principles and specifics of military-economic analysis]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2014, vol. 13, iss. 7, pp. 2–11. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Vikulov S.F., Zubova L.V. [Contents and structure of feasibility baseline data on the forecast price per product unit for the State Defense Order: Rationale through a risk-oriented approach]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2023, vol. 19, iss. 4, pp. 629–639. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Vikulov S.F., Zubova L.V. [A methodology to determine the aggregate cost of economic risk during the State Defense Order implementation]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2022, vol. 18, iss. 1, pp. 43–65. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Zubova L.V., Korovin E.V., Nikitin Yu.A. [Methodology for categorizing potentially dangerous risks of the system of technological support for the development of rocket and space technology]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta Gosudarstvennoi protivopozharnoi sluzhby MChS Rossii, 2021, no. 1, pp. 147–157. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Zubova L.V., Kuzmin V.N., Sherstyuk A.V. [Methodological approach to assessing economic risks, taking into account the risk tolerance of enterprises of the rocket and space industry]. Problemy ekonomiki i yuridicheskoi praktiki = Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 2020, vol. 16, iss. 5, pp. 62–67. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Zubova L.V., Nagovitsyna A.N., Kuzmenko G.A. [Method of formation of the total cost of the State Defense Order process taking into account risks]. Problemy ekonomiki i yuridicheskoi praktiki = Economic Problems and Legal Practice, 2020, vol. 16, iss. 5, pp. 68–72. (In Russ.)
Zubova L.V., Zubov A.O. [The adoption of business decisions in conditions of uncertainty and competition through dynamic modelling of the relationships between key structural indicators of business entities]. Izvestiâ Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo èkonomičeskogo universiteta, 2019, no. 1, pp. 97–100. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Tselykovskikh A.A., Nikitin Yu.A., Astashenko A.N. et al. [Methodological approach to assessing and monitoring the risk tolerance of the investment and construction project management system]. Vestnik Rossiiskogo novogo universiteta. Seriya: Chelovek i obshchestvo = Bulletin of Russian New University. Human and Society, 2023, no. 1, pp. 43–54. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Tselykovskikh A.A., Nikitin Yu.A., Zubov A.O. [Methodology for predicting the cost of the process of developing a sample of the VVST based on the project approach, taking into account the uncertainty of cost data]. Vestnik Ekaterininskogo instituta = Bulletin of Catherine the Great National Institute, 2022, no. 3, pp. 59–65. (In Russ.)