Subject. The article considers the adverse impact of demographic crisis on economic growth in rural areas. Objectives. The purpose is to assess the impact of demographic dynamics on development prospects of the rural economy of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the need for labor resources to ensure its growth, to determine the boundaries of production capabilities in the replacement of outgoing workers through the growth of labor productivity. Methods. The study rests on special methods of economic analysis. Results. The growth in the volume of production and provision of services in the rural economy of the Krasnoyarsk Territory will be ensured, if productivity gains is more than 1% per every 2 thousand leaving employees. The most likely scenario is an increase in labor productivity at the level of 2-3% per year. Conclusions. The findings may be of interest to municipal administrators in rural areas, representatives of regional authorities, departments, and institutions.
Keywords: rural economy, forecasting, demography, labor productivity, employable population
References:
Komkov D.E., Kirichek P.N. [Regions within the area of demographic risk: Negative migration and urbanization trends]. Regionologiya = Regionology, 2017, no. 1, pp. 139–148. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Makarentseva A.O., Mkrtchyan N.V., Zubarevich N.V. [Demographic situation and socio-economic development of Russian regions in the first half of 2020]. Ekonomicheskoe razvitie Rossii = Russian Economic Development, 2020, vol. 27, no. 10, pp. 73–88. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Blinova T.V. [Demographic threats and limitations of the development of rural territories in Russia]. Vestnik Saratovskogo gosudarstvennogo sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Vestnik of Saratov State Socio-Economic University, 2018, no. 2, pp. 14–18. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Kolennikova O.A., Toksanbaeva M.S. [Provision of priority productions with quality labor resources: Shortage of personnel and recruitment problems]. Narodonaselenie = Population, 2017, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 90–103. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Vereshchagina A.V., Stanislavskii P.V., Samygin S.I. Demograficheskaya bezopasnost' Rossii: monografiya [Demographic security of Russia: a monograph]. Moscow, Rusains Publ., 2021, 116 p.
Yugov E.A. [Problems of reproduction of labor resources of rural areas]. Vestnik Kurskoi gosudarstvennoi sel'skokhozyaistvennoi akademii = Bulletin of the Kursk State Agricultural Academy, 2018, no. 4, pp. 191–197. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Margalitadze O.N. [Labor migration as a factor compensating for the projected shortage in the Russian labor market in the medium and long term]. Moskovskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal, 2022, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 360–378. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Nikitina T.I. [Influence of the demographic situation on the level of sustainable development of the rural territories of the Chelyabinsk Region]. Vestnik Kurskoi gosudarstvennoi sel'skokhozyaistvennoi akademii = Bulletin of Kursk State Agricultural Academy, 2018, no. 8, pp. 273–278. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Parshukov D.V., Koloskova Yu.I., Shaporova Z.E. [Differentiation of rural areas of the region according to the standard of living of the population (based on the materials of the Krasnoyarsk Territory)]. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya = Fundamental Research, 2021, no. 4, pp. 65–70. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Parshukokov D.V., Koloskova Yu.I., Shaporova Z.E. [Demographic constraints of sustainable development of rural areas of the Krasnoyarsk Territory]. Gumanitarnye, sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie i obshchestvennye nauki = Humanities, Social-Economic and Social Sciences, 2021, no. 11, pp. 71–75. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Parshukov D.V., Shaporova Z.E. [Forecasting the rural population dynamics and its impact on the rural territories socio-economic development (by the materials of the Krasnoyarsk Region)]. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskii i gumanitarnyi zhurnal = The Social and Economic and Humanitarian Magazine, 2022, no. 4, pp. 54–63. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Soboleva S.V., Smirnova N.E., Chudaeva O.V. [Demographic security of the Siberian Federal District regions: Estimation of risks]. Vestnik NGUEU = Vestnik NSUEM, 2016, no. 1, pp. 10–21. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Aslanov S.S., Perederii V.A. [Actual problems of sustainable development of rural areas of Krasnodar Region (based on sociological research)]. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya = Theory and Practice of Social Development, 2019, no. 10, pp. 24–29. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Popova S.A., Korobeinikov D.A., Kolpakova E.A. [Typology of rural territories of the Russian Federation based on demographic differentiation of regions]. Kazanskii ekonomicheskii vestnik = Kazan Economic Vestnik, 2020, no. 2, pp. 42–47. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Mikheeva N.N. [Possible alternatives to the gross regional product indicator]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2020, no. 1, pp. 32–42. URL: Link (In Russ.)
