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National Interests: Priorities and Security

Forecasting the dynamics of the rural economy development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory under demographic crisis conditions

Vol. 19, Iss. 5, MAY 2023

Received: 6 April 2023

Received in revised form: 14 April 2023

Accepted: 21 April 2023

Available online: 16 May 2023


JEL Classification: J11, R1

Pages: 904–923


Denis V. PARSHUKOV Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University (KrasSAU), Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russian Federation


Subject. The article considers the adverse impact of demographic crisis on economic growth in rural areas.
Objectives. The purpose is to assess the impact of demographic dynamics on development prospects of the rural economy of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the need for labor resources to ensure its growth, to determine the boundaries of production capabilities in the replacement of outgoing workers through the growth of labor productivity.
Methods. The study rests on special methods of economic analysis.
Results. The growth in the volume of production and provision of services in the rural economy of the Krasnoyarsk Territory will be ensured, if productivity gains is more than 1% per every 2 thousand leaving employees. The most likely scenario is an increase in labor productivity at the level of 2-3% per year.
Conclusions. The findings may be of interest to municipal administrators in rural areas, representatives of regional authorities, departments, and institutions.

Keywords: rural economy, forecasting, demography, labor productivity, employable population


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May 2023