Subject. This article deals with the issues of strengthening the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in the context of aggravation of relations with Western countries. Objectives. The article aims to develop a methodology for the rapid and efficient identification, ranking and assessment of threats to national security characterized by the maximum potential for damage to the Russian Federation. Methods. For the study, I used a causal analysis, analogy approach, and the method of expert assessment. Results. The article confirms that the major threat to the national security of the Russian Federation is the country's drawing into wars and armed conflicts. Human military losses and casualties, a decrease in incomes of the population, an increase in the flow of migrants and refugees, permanent psychological stress should also be regarded as a high-ranking threat. Conclusions. The proposed methodology for ranking threats simplifies the development of the national security status indicators.
Keywords: threats and risks, threat ranking, national security, economic and military power
References:
Zmiyak S.S., Taranov P.M., Abusamkha A.Yu. [Adaptation of the national economy to international sanctions: Approaches review]. Korporativnoe upravlenie i innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki Severa: Vestnik Nauchno-issledovatel'skogo tsentra korporativnogo prava, upravleniya i venchurnogo investirovaniya Syktyvkarskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2022, vol. 2, iss. 1, pp. 71–80. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Kazantsev S.V. [Life under sanctions]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' = Economic Security, 2022, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 371–386. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Averin A.N., Ignatova T.V., Kyurdzhiev S.P., Shkhagoshev R.V. [Methodology and institutional framework of ensuring national security of the Russian Federation]. Nauka i obrazovanie: khozyaistvo i ekonomika; predprinimatel'stvo; pravo i upravlenie, 2019, no. 7, pp. 128–130. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Prokop'ev A.V. [Method of calculating the integral indicator for assessing threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation]. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya = Theory and Practice of Social Development, 2020, no. 12, pp. 56–63. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Kazantseva E.G. [Economic security of the state as a strategic priority amidst global transformation]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' = Economic Security, 2022, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 739–756. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Gubaidullina I.N. [Analysis of socio-economic indicators of economic security of Russia]. Evraziiskii yuridicheskii zhurnal, 2019, no. 11, pp. 387–390. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Zinchenko O.I. [Integrated assessment of the State's socio-economic security]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost' = Economic Security, 2022, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 757–774. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Shmarikhina E.S. [Integral assessment of the economic security of the Russian Federation]. Vestnik NSUEM, 2021, no. 1, pp. 181–190. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Palagina O.A. [Methodology of formation and integrated assessment of food security in the region]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo = Journal of Economy and Entrepreneurship, 2021, no. 4, pp. 412–415. (In Russ.)
Bashlakova O.I. [Environmental security in the context of sustainable development of society]. Srednerusskii vestnik obshchestvennykh nauk = Central Russian Journal of Social Sciences, 2015, no. 2, pp. 16–22. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il'in N.I., Sushko E.D. [National security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii = Economic Strategies, 2020, no. 5, pp. 6–23. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Eliseeva V.S. [Monitoring in the sphere of national security of the Russian Federation]. Yuridicheskaya nauka i praktika: Vestnik Nizhegorodskoi akademii MVD Rossii = Legal Science and Practice: Journal of Nizhny Novgorod Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2016, no. 2, pp. 273–278. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Robbins L. An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science. London, Macmillan, 1945, 178 p.
Kochemasova E.Yu. [Causal analysis as the instrument of strategic planning]. Innovatsii = Innovations, 2018, no. 4, pp. 36–42. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Elizarova V.V. [The position and role of financial security in ensuring the economic security of Russia]. Ekonomika, statistika i informatika. Vestnik UMO = Economics, Statistics and Informatics. Vestnik UMO, 2015, no. 2, pp. 45–48. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Taleb N.N. Chernyi lebed'. Pod znakom nepredskazuemosti [The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable]. Moscow, KoLibri Publ., 2016, 736 p.
Krupnov Yu.A., Zolotarev E.V., Troshin D.V., Eremin V.V. [Conservative approach to threat and risk assessment in the implementation of national development goals]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2022, vol. 18, iss. 6, pp. 1012–1038. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Gribin N.P. [America first or America alone? (National Security Strategy of the USA by Donald Trump: An analytical review)]. Vlast' (The Authority), 2018, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 7–19. URL: Link (In Russ.)
Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il'in N.I. [Modeling and assessing the national strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii = Economic Strategies, 2020, no. 2, pp. 6–19. (In Russ.) URL: Link