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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Risk forecasting for the Russian economic sectors in the context of sanctions ramp-up

Vol. 18, Iss. 7, JULY 2022

Received: 14 March 2022

Received in revised form: 27 April 2022

Accepted: 30 May 2022

Available online: 14 July 2022

Subject Heading: THREAT AND SECURITY

JEL Classification: О11, О17, О24

Pages: 1338–1353

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.18.7.1338

Natal'ya V. ABRAMCHIKOVA Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
nataly_abr@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5726-239X

Subject. This article discusses the problems of the Russian economy stabilization and the international sanctions' peculiarities.
Objectives. The article aims to define the forecast net foreign assets measure value impact on the level of financial risk for the Russian economy.
Methods. For the study, I used a statistical analysis including the time series extrapolation method.
Results. The article reveals that industries with a low percentage of import substitution are at the greatest risk if the sanctions ramp up. The article also confirms a steady downward trend in the net foreign assets value, which causes instability of the national currency exchange rate.
Conclusions. Almost all sectors of the Russian economy are at risk of destabilization. The functioning of the economy in difficult conditions depends on the cohesion of the Government and business.

Keywords: branch of economy, sanctions, import substitution, risk prediction, State support measures, statistical techniques

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