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Tools for practical implementation of climate policy in transport: Econometric analysis of global experience

Vol. 17, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2021

Received: 12 August 2021

Received in revised form: 27 August 2021

Accepted: 13 September 2021

Available online: 14 December 2021

Subject Heading: Foreign experience

JEL Classification: C67, Q58

Pages: 2272–2294

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.17.12.2272

Svetlana V. RATNER V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences (ICS RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation
lanaratner@ipu.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3485-5595

Valerii V. IOSIFOV Kuban State Technological University (KUBSTU), Krasnodar, Krasnodar Krai, Russian Federation
iosifov_v@mail.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject. The article addresses the standards for greenhouse gas emissions that are currently considered as an effective tool for stimulating the development of alternative transport technologies. However, quantitative evaluation of their effectiveness is not available, which is partially explained by the lack of statistical information from different countries.
Objectives. The purpose is to build econometric models of the influence of these standards on the electric car market development.
Methods. The annual reports of the International Energy Agency on the development of the electric car market and the data of the Global EV Data Explorer statistics center serve as the information base of the study. We analyzed time series for indicators of sales of electric cars in different countries and built mixed models, considering the auto-regression component, which helps describe the internal dynamics of the electric car market.
Results. The obtained regression coefficients in models for various countries can be used as interval evaluations for forecasting the growth of electric car sales in Russia, given the necessary conditions for developing a charging infrastructure and creating a system of incentives to match the cost of electric cars to that of traditional vehicles.
Conclusions. These interval evaluations may be useful for further decisions on the development of charging infrastructure, planning for resource use for electricity generation, calculating optimal subsidy or tax relief to support electric cars, evaluating the economic consequences of introducing the new standards on CO2 emissions, etc.

Keywords: climate policy, CO2 emission standards, electric car, sales dynamics, econometric modeling

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