Yurii D. KONONOVMelentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation kononov@isem.irk.ru ORCID id: not available
Dmitrii Yu. KONONOVMelentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation dima@isem.irk.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. The article focuses on the strategy of low carbon development of the economy and power engineering in Russia, which implies the introduction of CO2 emission charges. The adoption of CO2 tax can seriously influence the future mix of power plants and spur the cost of electricity. The expected adverse effect is great for the national and energy security. However, to correctly assess the strategic threats, there should be thorough and multidimensional research. Objectives. We quantify the possible effect of the introduction and growth in the CO2 tax on the cost of electricity across regions of the European part of Russia. Methods. We applied the systems analysis and the original optimization model, which accounts for the ambiguity of inputs and the correlation in the development of the regional power supply systems. Results. Based on our experimental computations, we proved that the methodological toolkit is effective for the above task. We outlined how the structure of power plants launched and the cost of electricity can possibly change in some federal districts if the CO2 tax increases from USD 10 to 40 per tonne of CO2. Conclusions and Relevance. In the above circumstances in the European part of Russia, including the Urals, each percent of an increase in the CO2 charge will expectedly lower the greenhouse gas emissions correspondingly, while the cost of electricity rises by 0.4–0.5 percent. Moreover, the mix of power plants and the cost of electricity will be getting less and less different across regions.
Keywords: carbon tax, electric power supply systems, power plant mix, cost of electricity, federal districts, CO2 emissions
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