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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Determining and evaluating the level of socio-economic risks for Russia to respond to ‘Grand Challenges’

Vol. 17, Iss. 3, MARCH 2021

Received: 28 January 2021

Received in revised form: 16 February 2021

Accepted: 2 March 2021

Available online: 15 March 2021

Subject Heading: THREATS AND SECURITY

JEL Classification: O11, O47, R11

Pages: 443–469

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.17.3.443

Nataliya V. KUZNETSOVA Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, Russian Federation
kuznetsova.nv@dvfu.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0544-8897

Ekaterina V. KOCHEVA Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, Russian Federation
kochevaev@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4545-2639

Nikolai A. MATEV Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, Russian Federation
matev_n@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5530-4162

Subject. The modern economic development strongly depend on a powerful regulator, such as grand challenges, which have become a critical barrier, requirement, level that should be attained. Considering the grand challenges, the country set up goals and tasks for the coming period and adjusts operations of economic agents. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the gap between the absolute and current market potential with reference to qualitative and quantitative indicators. The study is called to assess whether Russia is prepared for the existing and arising grand challenges. We also determine risk mitigation methods and the probability of negative scenarios.
Objectives. We determine and evaluate the level of socio-economic risks for Russia to respond to the grand challenges. We also pinpoint key directions for the Russian regions to continue their socio-economic development in order to promote their further economic growth.
Methods. The study presents the economic-mathematical modeling of the nexus among factors that determine socio-economic risks of the GRP dynamics to find their mitigation methods. In the study, the logit-model with dummy variables that attribute the regions to certain clusters.
Results. We analyzed and classified risks of the Russian regions by 10 integral indicators. The article shows homogeneous regional zones exposed to similar socio-economic development risks. We also carry out the multivariate classification of the Russian regions by the risks assessed. As the findings show, the Russian regions strongly differ by socio-economic risks. The article spotlights priorities of the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Conclusions and Relevance. As their key development vector, the Russian regions need to overcome the technological gap, mitigate the S&T potential risk and a drop in the innovative activity of the economy.

Keywords: grand challenges, risks, modeling, integral indicators, logit model

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