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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Assessing the risk of benchmark and additional indicators of the Science national project

Vol. 16, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2020

Received: 5 October 2020

Received in revised form: 28 October 2020

Accepted: 15 November 2020

Available online: 15 December 2020

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE STATE

JEL Classification: С51, С55, O21, O38

Pages: 2338–2362

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.16.12.2338

Lapochkina V.V. Russian Research Institute of Economics, Policy and Law in Science and Technology (RIEPL), Moscow, Russian Federation
v.lapochkina@riep.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3465-098X

Dolgova V.N. Russian Research Institute of Economics, Policy and Law in Science and Technology (RIEPL), Moscow, Russian Federation
v.dolgova@riep.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3077-2517

Orshanskaya Yu.O. Russian Research Institute of Economics, Policy and Law in Science and Technology (RIEPL), Moscow, Russian Federation
y.orshanskaya@riep.ru

ORCID id: not available

Shkilev I.N. Russian Research Institute of Economics, Policy and Law in Science and Technology (RIEPL), Moscow, Russian Federation
i.shkilev@riep.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject. National projects are the main vehicle of strategic national governance, including science. However, some planned indicators of national projects are not always feasible due to the uncertainty of external and internal developments, thus requiring adjustments to the national projects per se.
Objectives. We evaluate to what extent the Science National Project is exposed to the risk of benchmarks. It is important as the surrounding environment changes and influences indicators of strategic program documents, thereby urging to revise activities, volume of finance and benchmark of national projects.
Methods. We applied methods of analysis, generalization, grouping. Computations are based on statistical and mathematical methods. We reviewed scientific publications analyzing the risk exposure, risk assessment methods as part of project management. Subsequently, we devised and tested our own technique for assessing the risk of national projects’ indicators with two methods.
Results. We provide forecasted and planned values of benchmark and additional indicators of the Science National Project. The article presents the assessment of the risk of the above indicators for purposes of the project, and predicts to what extent the benchmark indicators may be attained or not attained.
Conclusions and Relevance. Following the assessment of the risk of benchmarks of the Science National Project, we discovered that the risk level (medium, low, high) is different for all indicators. The proposed risk assessment techniques allow to comprehensively evaluate benchmarks. The findings can be used by executive authorities and respective experts to predict the attainment of national projects' benchmarks.

Keywords: national project, risk, benchmark

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