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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Analyzing the financial and economic momentum as a result of changes in the interest rate

Vol. 16, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2020

Received: 7 May 2020

Received in revised form: 23 May 2020

Accepted: 12 June 2020

Available online: 15 September 2020

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE STATE

JEL Classification: D29, Е59, F01, G19, G20

Pages: 1656–1673

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.16.9.1656

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (ChuvSU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
v2v3s4@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6198-3157

Subject. The article discusses financial and economic momenta.
Objectives. I determine financial and economic momenta as the interest rate changes in Russia.
Methods. The study is based on a systems approach and the method of statistical analysis.
Results. The Russian economy was found to strongly depend on prices for crude oil and natural gas, thus throwing Russia to the outskirts of the global capitalism, though keeping the status of an energy superpower, which ensures a sustainable growth in the global economy by increasing the external consumption and decreasing the domestic one. The devaluation of the national currency, a drop in tax revenue, etc. result from the decreased interest rate. They all require to increase M2 and the devalued retail loan in RUB, thus rising the GDP deflator. As for positive effects, the Central Bank operates sustainably, replenishes gold reserves and keeps the trade balance (positive balance), thus strengthening its resilience during a global drop in crude oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive effects were discovered to result from a decreased in the interest rate, rather than keeping it low all the time.
Conclusions and Relevance. As the interest rate may be, the financial and economic momentum in Russia depends on the volatility of the price for crude oil and natural gas. Lowering the interest rate and devaluing the national currency, the Central Bank preserves the resource structure of the Russian economy, strengthens its positions within the global capitalism and keeps its status of an energy superpower, thus reinforcing its resilience against a global drop in oil prices.

Keywords: interest rate, finance, economy, energy superpower

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