National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Abstracting and Indexing

РИНЦ
Referativny Zhurnal VINITI RAS
Worldcat
LCCN Permalink
Google Scholar

Online available

EBSCOhost
Eastview
Elibrary
Biblioclub

Archiving

Cyberleninka (24 month OA embargo)

Evaluating the sustainability of development forecasts concerning the fuel and energy complex and regional systems against economic threats to energy security

Vol. 15, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2019

Received: 10 September 2019

Received in revised form: 30 September 2019

Accepted: 16 October 2019

Available online: 13 December 2019

Subject Heading: ENERGY SECURITY

JEL Classification: Q43, Q47

Pages: 2317–2326

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.12.2317

Kononov Yu.D. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation
kononov@isem.irk.ru

ORCID id: not available

Kononov D.Yu. Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation
dima@isem.irk.ru

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article investigates the sustainability of energy systems and methods to quantify it when comparing development scenarios of the fuel and energy complex.
Objectives The study aims to forge methods for quantifying the sustainability of development scenarios of energy systems and their resilience against possible changes in the future.
Methods The study is based on a systems analysis of energy security issues and the relationship of power engineering, involving optimization and stochastic economic-mathematical models.
Results We proved that the systemic sustainability should be considered as a metric of energy security and used to compare development scenarios of the fuel and energy complex and regional power supply systems. The article sets out new metrics describing the sustainability of development options of the fuel and energy complex and power supply systems in regions and methods to evaluate them. We display methodological toolkit to quantify the metrics and did experimental computations, proving that the approach is feasible for evaluating strategic threats to energy security.
Conclusions Considering the sustainability of development options, users expand a number of criteria to evaluate the options from perspectives of energy security. The proposed metrics of sustainability and quantification methods will reinforce long-term forecasts concerning the power engineering development and strategic decisions.

Keywords: energy security, forecast, energy sector, sustainability, development options

References:

  1. Lagerev A.V. [A dynamic territorial-production model to form the scenarios of inter-coordinated energy development of Russia for federal okrug]. Izvestiya RAN. Ser. Energetika = News of Russian Academy of Sciences. Ser. Energy, 2004, no. 4, pp. 26–32. (In Russ.)
  2. Sovacool B.K., Mukherjee I. Conceptualizing and Measuring Energy Security: A Synthesized Approach. Energy, 2011, vol. 36, iss. 8, pp. 5343–5355. URL: Link
  3. Senderov S.M., Pyatkova N.I. [The use of a two-tiered technique for research to address energy security issues]. Izvestiya RAN. Ser. Energetika = News of Russian Academy of Sciences. Ser. Energy, 2000, no. 6, pp. 31–39. (In Russ.)
  4. Senderov S.M., Edelev A.V. Technology to Ensure Energy Security in Development of Russia's Energy Strategy. Energy Systems Research, 2018, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1–7. URL: Link
  5. Loktionov V.I. [Adaptability of energy systems' development scenarios as an indicator of energy security]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2015, vol. 14, iss. 40, pp. 11–21. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  6. Zorina T.G. [Sustainable energy development: Essence and methodological approaches to assessment]. Sovremennye tekhnologii upravleniya = Modern Management Technology, 2015, no. 1, pp. 1–17. (In Russ.)
  7. Fedorova L.A. [Specific characteristics of valuation the level steadiness high technology manufactures]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2010, vol. 6, iss. 17, pp. 15–28. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  8. Makarov A.A., Voropai N.I. et al. Podkhody k otsenke ustoichivosti i riskov razvitiya energetiki Rossii. V kn.: Sistemnye issledovaniya v energetike: metodologiya i rezul'taty [Approaches to evaluating the sustainability and risks of power engineering development in Russia. In: Systemic requirements in power engineering: Methodology and results]. Moscow, Energy Research Institute of RAS Publ., 2018, 309 p.
  9. Kuleshov V.V., Chernyshov A.A. [Multiple industry complexes: Contemporary modeling trends]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody = Economics and Mathematical Methods, 1987, no. 6, pp. 1021–1028. (In Russ.)
  10. Kononov Yu.D., Gal'perova E.V., Kononov D.Yu. et al. Metody i modeli prognoznykh issledovanii vzaimosvyazei energetiki i ekonomiki [Methods and models for forecasting research into the relationship of power engineering and economy]. Novosibirsk, Nauka Publ., 2009, 178 p.
  11. Ermakov S.M. Metod Monte-Karlo i smezhnye voprosy [The Monte Carlo method and related issues]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1975, 472 p.
  12. Kononov Yu.D., Tyrtyshnyi V.N., Kononov D.Yu. [Stochastic modeling for a choice of power supply options in line with investment risks]. Informatsionnye i matematicheskie tekhnologii v nauke i upravlenii = Information and Mathematical Technology in Science and Management, 2018, no. 2, pp. 80–87. (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 16, Iss. 7
July 2020

Archive