Evaluating the sustainability of development forecasts concerning the fuel and energy complex and regional systems against economic threats to energy security
Kononov Yu.D.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation kononov@isem.irk.ru ORCID id: not available
Kononov D.Yu.Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (ESI SB RAS), Irkutsk, Russian Federation dima@isem.irk.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject The article investigates the sustainability of energy systems and methods to quantify it when comparing development scenarios of the fuel and energy complex. Objectives The study aims to forge methods for quantifying the sustainability of development scenarios of energy systems and their resilience against possible changes in the future. Methods The study is based on a systems analysis of energy security issues and the relationship of power engineering, involving optimization and stochastic economic-mathematical models. Results We proved that the systemic sustainability should be considered as a metric of energy security and used to compare development scenarios of the fuel and energy complex and regional power supply systems. The article sets out new metrics describing the sustainability of development options of the fuel and energy complex and power supply systems in regions and methods to evaluate them. We display methodological toolkit to quantify the metrics and did experimental computations, proving that the approach is feasible for evaluating strategic threats to energy security. Conclusions Considering the sustainability of development options, users expand a number of criteria to evaluate the options from perspectives of energy security. The proposed metrics of sustainability and quantification methods will reinforce long-term forecasts concerning the power engineering development and strategic decisions.
Keywords: energy security, forecast, energy sector, sustainability, development options
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