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Leading indicators of production dynamics during long waves of economic development

Vol. 15, Iss. 12, DECEMBER 2019

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 6 November 2019

Received in revised form: 21 November 2019

Accepted: 8 December 2019

Available online: 13 December 2019

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC SECURITY

JEL Classification: C43, E30, E37

Pages: 2302–2316

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.15.12.2302

Bogdanova A.L. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of RAS (CEMI RAS), Moscow, Russian Federation
annabogd@gmail.com

ORCID id: not available

Subject The article examines leading indicators of economic dynamism.
Objectives The study assesses whether it is possible to make forecasts more accurate if the specifics of some economic development phases are considered when using leading indicators.
Methods The study employs analytical and statistical approaches and comparative analysis and the methodology for analyzing cyclical indicators Conference Board.
Results The reliability of GDP forecast proved to be relatively higher than the feasibility of leading indicators of industrial production dynamism. The feasibility of the indicators differs depending on a phase of a long wave. There are fewer false signals at some phases. This may be due to the specifics of the phase, at which mature sectors are retrofitted with new wave technologies in a predictable manner. Having analyzed whether leading indicators can predict sectoral trends, I traced patterns arising at the macroscopic level, i.e. the aggressive phase ensures more accurate and reliable forecasts. Most errors are made at the phase of maturity, whether it be sectors or the macroeconomic level.
Conclusions and Relevance Although leading indicators of economic dynamism may give false signals, the frequency of such signals depends in a phase of a long wave. The analysis of GDP and some sectors reveals such dependency.

Keywords: crisis, economic security, leading indicators, long waves

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