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ИД «Финансы и кредит»






National Interests: Priorities and Security

A new approach to assessing demographic losses and economic damage as a result of road accidents

Vol. 15, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2019

Received: 6 August 2019

Received in revised form: 21 August 2019

Accepted: 6 September 2019

Available online: 16 September 2019


JEL Classification: J11, J13, J17, J18, J24

Pages: 1767–1784


Lebedev K.K. State Academic University for the Humanities, Moscow, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Subject Over half a million people has been killed by road accidents for the recent 20 years in Russia. The State tries to do its best to reduce the dead toll of road accidents. The mortality rates have halved, thereby proving the high efficiency of the efforts. However, the State misses the total information on the subject. The existing techniques for assessing demographic and economic losses of road accidents overlook an important aspect. In addition to women of reproductive age, we lose their demographic potential which is measured with birth rates. The article focuses on demographic losses and economic damage resulting from the lost demographic potential of women who die in road accidents.
Objectives The research aims to build a model for assessing economic and demographic capabilities, which will allow to calculate demographic losses and economic damage. If such a model proves to be efficient, it will be recommended to be integrated into the basic framework of the federal assessment techniques used by the Russian Ministry of Transport.
Results The economic and demographic assessment model will help make computations using retrospective data and make scenario-based forecasts of possible damage for the economy and demography.
Conclusions and Relevance The research shows that demographic losses and economic damage of road accidents in Russia are so high that the issue should be treated at the level of national security.

Keywords: demography, economic damage, road accident, national security


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