+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Forecasting the nature of construction activities in Russia and their reasons

Vol. 14, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2018

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 7 May 2018

Received in revised form: 28 May 2018

Accepted: 19 June 2018

Available online: 14 September 2018

Subject Heading: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY

JEL Classification: D10, E23, M20, O12

Pages: 1595–1618

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.14.9.1595

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
v2v3s4@mail.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6198-3157

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation
alena-mulendeeva@yandex.ru

ORCID id: not available

Importance The article discusses the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia for the future period.
Objectives The research analyzes the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia within the future period of time, referring to estimates of work completed as part of construction activities, its growth rate, distribution skewness, average, Business Confidence Index, portfolio of orders, actual scope of work, numbers of the employed people, average utilization level of production capacity, economic situation, shortage of orders, high taxes, lack of qualified workforce.
Methods The research employs fundamental principles of the theory and contemporary practice of systems analysis concerning types of economic activities. We also adhere to economic laws and scholarly findings on the equitable economic development.
Results We found the optimal number of operational construction entities in the Russian regions, scope of work, percentage of residential buildings, prevailing importance of productive capacity launch, and illustrate points of decline. We unveil the hierarchy of reasons influencing construction activities in Russia, with the predominating factor being rather hard to trace due to mutual relatedness.
Conclusions and Relevance The optimal forecasting line of the Russian construction activities stems from the market environment they are performed in, i.e. abolishment of monopolies and reduction in the actual scope of work. It will dilute the mutual relatedness of factors influencing the construction activities in Russia and spotlight the predominating and controllable factor. The findings should be used to adjust the Roadmap for Construction Development in Russia, set up governmental initiatives for encouraging the construction activity in the Russian regions and improve the implementation mechanism.

Keywords: skewness, forecasting, construction activity, growth rate

References:

  1. Aganbegyan A.G. [On the modernization of public production in Russian Federation]. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of Region, 2011, no. 2, pp. 7–10. URL: Link (In Russ.)
  2. Minakir P.A. [On the key tasks of Russia's economic development (following the Address of the RF President to the Federal Assembly)]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2014, no. 1, pp. 22–25. (In Russ.)
  3. Bodrunov S.D., Grinberg R.S., Sorokin D.E. [Reindustrialization of the Russian economy: imperatives, potential, risks]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii = Economic Revival of Russia, 2013, no. 1, pp. 19–49. (In Russ.)
  4. Tsvetkov V.A. [Modernization of national economy: theoretical and practical approach (parts 1 and 2)]. Innovatsii = Innovations, 2012, no. 3, pp. 16–24. (In Russ.)
  5. Tsvetkov V.A. [Modernization of national economy: theoretical and practical approach (parts 3 and 4)]. Innovatsii = Innovations, 2012, no. 4, pp. 50–58. (In Russ.)
  6. Cerutti E., Dagher Ji., Ariccia G.D. Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms: A Cross-Country Perspective. Journal of Housing Economics, 2017, vol. 38, pp. 1–13. URL: Link
  7. Wang Z., Zhang Q. Fundamental Factors in the Housing Markets of China. Journal of Housing Economics, 2014, vol. 25, pp. 53–61. URL: Link
  8. Caldera A., Johansson T. The Price Responsiveness of Housing Supply in OECD Countries. Journal of Housing Economics, 2013, vol. 22, iss. 3, pp. 231–249. URL: Link
  9. Agnello L., Schuknecht L. Booms and Busts in Housing Markets: Determinants and Implications. Journal of Housing Economics, 2011, vol. 20, iss. 3, pp. 171–190. URL: Link
  10. Adams Z., Fuss R. Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets. Journal of Housing Economics, 2010, vol. 19, iss. 1, pp. 38–50. URL: Link
  11. Gan Qu., Hill R.J. Measuring Housing Affordability: Looking Beyond the Median. Journal of Housing Economics, 2009, vol. 18, iss. 2, pp. 115–125. URL: Link
  12. Zhu B., Betzinger M., Sebastian St. Housing Market Stability, Mortgage Market Structure, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area. Journal of Housing Economics, 2017, vol. 37, pp. 1–21. URL: Link
  13. Zhao R., Wenchun W., Qiang G. Housing Price Appreciation, Investment Opportunity, and Firm Innovation: Evidence from China. Journal of Housing Economics, 2016, vol. 33, pp. 34–58. URL: Link
  14. Kivilä Je., Martinsuo M., Vuorinen L. Sustainable Project Management Through Project Control in Infrastructure Projects. International Journal of Project Management, 2017. vol. 35, iss. 6, pp. 1167–1183. URL: Link
  15. Peace A., Ramirez A., Broeren M.L.M. et al. Everyday Industry – Pragmatic Approaches for Integrating Sustainability into Industry Decision Making. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 2018, vol. 13, pp. 93–101. URL: Link
  16. Fidrmuc Ja., Korhonen I., Batorova I. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles. CESifo Economic Studies, 2013, vol. 59, iss. 2, pp. 392–411. URL: Link
  17. Cole A.H. A Note on Social Overhead and a Dynamic Analysis of Industry. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1960, vol. 74, iss. 3, pp. 413–415. URL: Link
  18. Margsiri W., Mello A.S., Ruckes M.E. A Dynamic Analysis of Growth via Acquisition. Review of Finance, 2008, vol. 12, iss. 4, pp. 635–671. URL: Link
  19. Lerner A.P. The Concept of Monopoly and the Measurement of Monopoly Power. The Review of Economic Studies, 1934, vol. 1, iss. 3, pp. 157–175. URL: Link
  20. Milford T. “Patent Property”: The Fulton Lawyers and the Franchising of Progress. American Journal of Legal History, 2018, vol. 58, iss. 1, pp. 87–125. URL: Link

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 20, Iss. 3
March 2024

Archive