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Forecasting the nature of construction activities in Russia and their reasons

Vol. 14, Iss. 9, SEPTEMBER 2018

Received: 7 May 2018

Received in revised form: 28 May 2018

Accepted: 19 June 2018

Available online: 14 September 2018


JEL Classification: D10, E23, M20, O12

Pages: 1595–1618

Smirnov V.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

Mulendeeva A.V. I.N. Ulianov Chuvash State University (Chuv SU), Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, Russian Federation

ORCID id: not available

Importance The article discusses the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia for the future period.
Objectives The research analyzes the nature of, and reasons for construction activities in Russia within the future period of time, referring to estimates of work completed as part of construction activities, its growth rate, distribution skewness, average, Business Confidence Index, portfolio of orders, actual scope of work, numbers of the employed people, average utilization level of production capacity, economic situation, shortage of orders, high taxes, lack of qualified workforce.
Methods The research employs fundamental principles of the theory and contemporary practice of systems analysis concerning types of economic activities. We also adhere to economic laws and scholarly findings on the equitable economic development.
Results We found the optimal number of operational construction entities in the Russian regions, scope of work, percentage of residential buildings, prevailing importance of productive capacity launch, and illustrate points of decline. We unveil the hierarchy of reasons influencing construction activities in Russia, with the predominating factor being rather hard to trace due to mutual relatedness.
Conclusions and Relevance The optimal forecasting line of the Russian construction activities stems from the market environment they are performed in, i.e. abolishment of monopolies and reduction in the actual scope of work. It will dilute the mutual relatedness of factors influencing the construction activities in Russia and spotlight the predominating and controllable factor. The findings should be used to adjust the Roadmap for Construction Development in Russia, set up governmental initiatives for encouraging the construction activity in the Russian regions and improve the implementation mechanism.

Keywords: skewness, forecasting, construction activity, growth rate


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