Importance The article discusses models for employment forecast in the long and short run. It also focuses on demand and supply factors in the labor market of the Moscow oblast. Objectives We analyze the most common forecasting models by revealing the substance of the population employment forecast and examining how different indicators influence supply and demand in the labor market of the Moscow oblast. Methods Considering the key factors of labor demand, we make a specification for employment modeling. We use the data deflation technique to conduct a comparative analysis. We overview neoclassical models and Keynesian model, specifications based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and investment included into the capital stock, Harrod–Domar model specification, multivariate regression equations. Results The article systematizes theoretical aspects of employment, identifies key factors of labor demand and substantiates the importance of industrial distinctions to be taken into account in modeling the region's employment. Conclusions and Relevance Labor resource demand has changed in the labor market of the Moscow oblast. We conclude respective demand factors shall be primarily taken into account to construct regional employment models. Having analyzed contemporary approaches to regional employment forecasts, we found a lot of unresolved issues relating to theoretical, methodological, organizational and technical aspects.
Mironova E.S. [Developing the block of labor resources and demography in Russian quarter macroeconomic model]. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnokhozyaistvennogo prognozirovaniya RAN = Scientific Works: Institute of Economic Forecasting of RAS, 2008, vol. 6, pp. 605–622. (In Russ.)
Kashepov V.A. Ekonomika i zanyatost' [Economy and employment]. Moscow, IMEI Publ., 1999, 233 p.
Zav'yalova K.A. [Interaction of labor market and educational services problems]. Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya, 2014, no. 6. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Plaksya V.I. Bezrabotitsa: teoriya i sovremennaya rossiiskaya praktika [Unemployment: Theory and practice]. Moscow, RAGS Publ., 2004, 381 p.
Fedorov G.M., Voloshenko K.Yu. Analiz i prognozirovanie rynka truda Kaliningradskoi oblasti [Analyzing and forecasting the labor market of the Kaliningrad oblast]. Kaliningrad, Kant Baltic Federal University Publ., 2007, 162 p.
Perfilov V.A. [Regional socio-economic systems: Essence and types of developmental sustainability]. Problemy sovremennoi ekonomiki = Problems of Modern Economics, 2012, no. 2, pp. 264–266. (In Russ.)
Uskova T.V. Upravlenie ustoichivym razvitiem regiona [Managing the region's sustainable development].Vologda, ISERT of RAS Publ., 2009, 355 p.
Fauzer V.V., Nazarova I.G., Fauzer Vl.V. Sotsial'no-trudovye otnosheniya: otraslevaya i regional'naya spetsifika [Social and labor relations: Industrial and regional specifics]. Moscow, Ekon-Inform Publ., 2010, 175 p.
Aleksandrova M.A., Pakhomova E.A., Rozhkova O.V. [Main approaches to econometric modeling of employment on the basis of industrial specifics]. World Science – 2017: materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii [Proc. Int. Sci. Conf. World Science – 2017]. Kirov, International Center for R&D Publ., 2017, pp. 158–162.
Voloshenko K.Yu., Dmitrieva M.A. [Methodological principles for labor market forecasting and growing risk exposure of the Baltic region’s economy]. Ekonomika i sotsium, 2013, no. 4, pp. 240–248. (In Russ.) URL: Link-2013%20chast%201.pdf
Kleiner G.B. Metody analiza proizvodstvennykh funktsii [Methods for production functions analysis]. Moscow, Informelektro Publ., 1980, 72 p.
Alasheev S.Yu., Kuteinitsina T.G., Postalyuk N.Yu. Metodika srednesrochnogo prognozirovaniya kadrovykh potrebnostei ekonomiki regiona [Techniques for mid-term forecasting of staffing needs in the region's economy]. Samara, Profi Publ., 2003, 84 p.
Keynes J.M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Moscow, Gelios ARV Publ., 2002, 352 p.
Gurtov V.A., Pitukhin E.A., Serova L.M. [Modeling the economy's need for professionally trained personnel]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2007, no. 6, pp. 91–107. (In Russ.)
Ivanter V.V., Uzyakov M.N., Ksenofontov M.Yu. et al. [The future of Russia: Inertial development versus innovation breakthrough: A long-term scenario forecast]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2005, no. 5, pp. 17–63. (In Russ.)
Breev B.D. [Employment in Russia: Contemporary time and prospects]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economic Science of Modern Russia, 2001, no. 4, pp. 59–74. (In Russ.)
Kapelyushnikov R.I. Rossiyskii rynok truda: adaptatsiya bez restrukturizatsii [Russian labor market: Adaptation without restructuring]. Moscow, HSE Publ., 2001, 309 p.
