Importance When development cycles of the socio-economic system are determined, it helps to understand causes of some events. Agriculture is one of the fundamental industries, with its development cycles being the subject of this research. It is especially important to analyze the development of agriculture so to subsequently make up relevant decisions on the industry development in modern Russia, considering historical retrospect and anti-Russian sanctions. Objectives The research analyzes isolated time series of available data on the agricultural development in the USSR (1970–1990) and the Russian Federation. We also identify key development cycles of agriculture and try to provide an economic interpretation of the cyclicality. Methods We involved the econometric framework, harmonic analysis (Fourier), spectral analysis, extended algorithm for studying time series and identifying considerable harmonics. We used the Levinson–Durbin algorithm in the Wolfram Mathematica 10 software application to solve the Yule–Walker equations. Results We found key development cycles of agriculture and provided an economic interpretation of what could possibly cause the cycles of such time series as Crop Yield, Livestock Number, Agricultural Machines. Conclusions and Relevance The industry had been developing more intensively for 1970–1990 as compared with 1991–2012. The 1970–1990 cyclicality can be explained with the five-year economic plans practiced in the USSR economy. Even if unbiased and objective mathematical tools detect strengths of the State-planned economy, then the past experience and practices should be examined more thoroughly in terms of organizational mechanisms so to adapt them to contemporary economic conditions.
Keywords: agriculture, historical retrospect, time series, harmonic analysis, spectral analysis
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