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Mechanisms and methods for statistical analysis and tracing of shifts in phases of cyclical development of the economy under increased uncertainty of the institutional and market environment

Vol. 12, Iss. 10, OCTOBER 2016

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Received: 25 May 2016

Received in revised form: 30 June 2016

Accepted: 22 July 2016

Available online: 1 November 2016


JEL Classification: C53, F44, F47

Pages: 34-45

Safiullin M.R. Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

El'shin L.A. Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

Prygunova M.I. Center of Advanced Economic Research in the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation

Importance Contemporary socio-economic systems develop in cycles. Those cyclical changes concern various aspects and levels of the economic system, its structure, thus outlining certain patterns. Considering economic globalization, regionalization, formation of complicated and mobile dynamic structures generating crisis phenomena, it is very reasonable to focus on the issue of contemporary regulation of cyclical development of economy, which becomes very difficult to resolve with classical methods of the cyclical theory.
Objectives The research scientifically confirms, verifies and tests the model of cyclical fluctuations that is based on such factors that would be very vulnerable to changes in the external and internal environment of the economic system.
Methods The research involves a technique that relies upon a factor-based approach and methods of statistical analysis and forecast and taxonomic method in particular.
Results We devised an algorithm to assess and evaluate cyclical fluctuations, which would allow identifying the upward and downward phases of economic cycles no matter whether they enter the positive or negative zone of priority development indices. This algorithm helps to make short-term forecasts, one to two years ahead of the current path of economic development of the national economy.
Conclusions and Relevance As the analysis shows, short-term cycles of the Russian economy somewhat different from conventional short-term Kitchin cycles, which reoccur every two to four years. The time of economic cycles in the Russian Federation has a very broad range, depending on adjusting activities of governmental authorities, and increased volatility of market conditions.

Keywords: business cycle, uncertainty


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