Importance Russia has been seeing a growth in population living below the official subsistence level. Therefore, the growing poverty issues should be analyzed in terms of the social peace, considering regional specifics. Objectives The research pursues common patterns in dynamics of Gross Domestic Product in correlation with the changing poverty level in the Central, Northwestern and Southern Federal Districts, and Russia as a whole. Methods Relying upon a systems approach, methods and techniques of dynamic modeling, we found the timing structure of Gross Domestic Product of the Russian Federation and Gross Regional Product in the three federal districts. Results The article enlists factors that fuel the poverty level, detects the cyclical nature of dynamic changes in Gross Regional Products and poverty level. We suggested a new class of models that constitute a system of non-stationary simultaneous equations with temporary and cyclical components, built adequate dynamic models reflecting a correlation of GRP and changes in the poverty level, and mentioned how the problem of low income could be tackled. Conclusions and Relevance Using dynamic modeling, we made a forecast that confirmed concerns about growing poverty in the Russian Federation as a whole and the Central Federal district in particular. However, the Northwestern and Southern Federal Districts will be seeing a reduction in the official poverty level withing the coming two years. The Central and Northwestern Federal Districts will have fallen in the depressive state within six years, unless the issue of GRP remains unresolved. The scientifically proven models, recommendations and conclusions can be used by governmental authorities, analysts to formulate socio-economic programs for sustainable regional development.
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