Pecherkina M.S.Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation maria09.06@mail.ru
Importance The research develops an algorithm for analyzing the economic system behavior in a certain region, considering changes in the national economy. Objectives The research determines the economic system behavior of the Ural Federal District in relation to the Russian economy, and economic system of the Sverdlovsk oblast in relation to the economy of the Ural Federal District. Methods Using the dynamics time series analysis, we assessed the sustainability of a subordinate system against a superior one and proposed the classifier describing how the subordinate system responded to changes in the main system. Results The article shows growth trends in the industrial production index of Russia, Ural Federal District and the Sverdlovsk oblast, provides the assessment of the industry within the 1997–2015 period, focusing on the years of crisis. Conclusions and Relevance The economic system of the Ural Federal District has been proved to be vulnerable against the national economy. In 2014, the economy of the Ural Federal District was less susceptible to the national crisis. In 1998 and 2009 the economy of the Sverdlovsk oblast was less stable against the economy of the Ural Federal District. In 2014, the economy of the Sverdlovsk oblast responded in a different way, being sustainable and growing.
Keywords: region, sustainable development, economic crises, growth rates, industrial production index
References:
Floridi M., Pagni S., Falorni S.L., Luzzati T. An Exercise in Composite Indicators Construction: Assessing the Sustainability of Italian Regions. Ecological Economics, 2011, vol. 70, iss. 8, pp. 1440–1447.
Bell D., Morse S. Sustainability Indicators: Measuring the Immeasurable? London, Earthscan, 2008, 228 p.
Rotmans J. Tools for Integrated Sustainability Assessment: a Two-Track Approach. Integrated Assessment – Bridging Sciences & Policy, 2006, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 35–57.
Parris T.M., Kates R.W. Characterizing and Measuring Sustainable Development. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2003, vol. 28, pp. 559–586.
Ginevicius R., Hogeforster M., Gedvilait D. The Formation of the System of Indicators of Development of the Country’s Regions. Proc. 8th Int. Sci. Conf. Business and Management 2014, May 15–16. Lithuania, Vilnius, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2014, pp. 503–510.
Akaev A.A. Bol'shie tsikly kon"yunktury i innovatsionno-tsiklicheskaya teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Shumpetera-Kondrat'eva [Big cycles of economic conditions and the Schumpeter–Kondratieff theory of innovation and cyclical economic growth]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economic Science in Modern Russia, 2013, no. 2, pp. 7–28.
Glaz'ev S.Yu. Sovremennaya teoriya dlinnykh voln v razvitii ekonomiki [The modern theory of long waves in economic development]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economic Science in Modern Russia, 2012, no. 2, pp. 27–42.
Korotaev A.V., Grishin L.E. N.D. Kondrat'ev i Kondrat'evskie volny v mirovoi tekhnoinnovatsionnoi aktivnosti [N.D. Kondratieff and the Kondratieff waves in global technological and innovative activities]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economic Science in Modern Russia, 2013, no. 2, pp. 128–136.
Dement'ev V.E. Investitsionnye orientiry datirovki dlinnykh voln v razvitii ekonomiki [Investment milestones for fixing dates of long waves as part of economic development]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii = Economic Science in Modern Russia, 2013, no. 4, pp. 23–39.
Eichengreen B., Rose A., Wyplocz C. Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1996, no. 98, pp. 463–484.
Freixas X., Parigi B. Contagion and Efficiency in Gross and Net Interbank Payment Systems. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 1998, vol. 7, iss. 1, pp. 3–31.
Masson P.R. Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria. IMF Working Papers, 1998, no. 98-142, p. 4.
Azis I.J., Mitra S., Baluga A. Global Shock and Regional Spillovers. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2013, vol. 13, iss. 2, pp. 183–211.
Panizza U., Sturzenegger F., Zettelmeyer J. The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default. Journal of Economic Literature, 2009, vol. 47, no. 3, pp. 65–98.
Shavshukov V.M. Krizisy global'nykh finansov (1997–2013 gg.) [Global finance crises (1997–2013)]. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Seriya 5. Ekonomika = Bulletin ofSt. Petersburg University. Series 5. Economics, 2013, iss. 4, pp. 87–109.
Tsvetkov V.A. Tsikly i krizisy: teoretiko-metodologicheskii aspekt [Cycles and crises: theoretical and methodological considerations]. Moscow, Nestor-istoriya Publ., 2013, 504 p.
Senchagov V.K., Mityakov S.N. Sravnitel'nyi analiz vliyaniya finansovo-ekonomicheskikh krizisov 1998 g. i 2008–2009 gg. na indikatory ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii [A comparative analysis of the impact of the 1998 and 2008–2009 financial and economic crises on Russia's economic security indicators]. Vestnik Finansovogo universiteta = Bulletin of the Financial University, 2013, no. 6, pp. 71–88.
Kudrin A.L. Mirovoi finansovyi krizis i ego vliyanie na Rossiyu [Global financial crisis and its impact on Russia]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2009, no. 1, pp. 9–27.
Frolov D. Teoriya krizisov posle krizisa: tekhnologiya versus instituty [Theory of crises after crisis: technologies versus institutions]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2011, no. 7, pp. 17–33.
Lavrov S.Yu. Makroekonomicheskaya osnova tsiklichnosti ekonomicheskogo razvitiya v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Macroeconomic basis for the cyclical nature of economic development under modern circumstances]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoi teorii = Journal of Economic Theory, 2014, no. 1, pp. 122–134.
Sukharev O.S. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya krizisov: retrospektiva i sovremennost' [The economic theory of crises: a retrospective view and contemporary times]. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoi teorii = Russian Journal of Economic Theory, 2014, no. 3, pp. 30–46.
