Issues of substituting lost income of the Russian economy from exports of energy resources when changing technological modes in the power engineering sector
Danilin M.N.Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation maksdanilin@gmail.com
Importance The research analyzes how changes in technological modes of the power engineering sector influence the Russian economy. Objectives The research assesses how lost income of the Russian economy depends on export of energy resources when the power engineering sector switches to new technological modes. We also determine the target share of the Russian producers in the global markets of energy equipment, which would help compensate the lost income. Methods We propose a simplified model of total input the fuel and power engineering sectors make into Russia's GDP. The article overviews typical scenarios of technological development of the global power engineering in terms of changes in energy production costs. Results When shifting to mainly renewable sources of energy, the Russian manufacturing sectors should occupy the same share in the global market of energy equipment as currently occupied in the global markets of energy sources. As the technologies progress, the required market share may shrink. Conclusions and Relevance It will be reasonable to diversify the export markets of the Russian energy resources and enter the global market of construction of nuclear energy facilities in the short run. In the long run, an increase in energy affordability and reduction in energy consumption rates of technologies in other sectors may indirectly influence the Russian economy, and this effect may be much stronger than changes in revenues of the fuel and energy sector and power engineering sector.
Keywords: green energy, power engineering, export, cost structure, trends, technological development
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