Importance Currently, the import substitution policy permeates many industries and sectors. However, it especially concerns the agricultural food sector, since the food security of Russia remains one of the most vital priorities in the economic strategy of the State. In such circumstances, the State should evaluate whether it is possible to provide population with agricultural products and domestic-manufactured goods, and examine trends in developing the agricultural potential of certain food sub-sectors and identify the main growth drivers in agricultural products. Objectives The objective of the research is to study the development trends and evaluate the sustainability of grain production in order to substantiate factors that contribute to an increase in output of a land unit. Methods Using general scientific and econometric methods, we determine trends in developing grain production in the Russian Federation. The article presents the outcome how time series of gross yield of grain and crop productivity were analytically aligned per federal district and region of the Russian Federation, thus demonstrating the sustainability indicators of the levels. We also monitored structural changes in grain production volumes for the 1990-2014 period. Results The article substantiates crop productivity growth drivers in relation to natural and climatic conditions of agricultural production in the Orel oblast and determined the systemic effect of the factors against total variation of the final indicator. Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that Russia possesses sufficient capabilities and potential to develop its agriculture and domestic food production. However, the agricultural production mechanism should be improved and updated in the current economic circumstances. It is necessary to outline a set of organizational and economic measures that would contribute to sustainable operation of the grain production sector and generating synergistic effect of using the existing production potential.
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