Importance The economic system demonstrates sustainable development when its constituent components function in a stable way. Possible changes in the metallurgical industry raise the issue of forecasting scientific publications in order to plan the sustainability of metallurgical enterprises. The research focuses on forecasting trends in publishing scientific proceedings on the metallurgical industry and relevant challenges. Objectives The article examines how trends in scientific publications develop. We pursue the following objectives: to investigate whether it is possible to apply such forecasting methods as exponential smoothing and the least square method to project dynamics of scientific publications on the basis of statistical data, formulate a trend function equation and choose appropriate models for developing the 2015-2017 forecast, determine whether it is possible to apply the forecasts in order to take decisions on ensuring sustainable development of metallurgical enterprises. Methods The article gives a graphical presentation of dynamics of scientific publications on pipe manufacturing. Using forecasting tools of Statistica Software Package, we determine power function equations and build forecast models for developing indicators under study. Results Based on the forecasting models, we make projections of scientific publications on pipe manufacturing. We propose to use information on changes in the number of scientific publications in order to evaluate the sustainability of metallurgical enterprises. Conclusions and Relevance Top executives of enterprises specializing in pipe manufacturing should monitor the effective economic system on an ongoing basis and forecast the dynamics of scientific publications. Relying on timely recording of jumps in composite indices, we can elaborate steps to ensure innovative and sustainable development of enterprises. The proposed methods for forecasting the pipe production development may be helpful for managers, economists, researchers working in the metallurgical industry.
Keywords: economic stability, forecasting, management, publishing, shipping, composite index
References:
Bazarova L.L. Menedzhment ustoichivogo razvitiya [Sustainable development management]. Moscow, ASV Publ., 2007, 118 p.
Baranov A.V., Taburchak A.P., Vychuzhanin D.I. Sistema innovatsionnogo razvitiya predpriyatiya s uchetom vybrannoi strategii innovatsionnogo potentsiala [A system for innovative development of the enterprise, considering the innovative potential strategy]. Ekonomika i menedzhment = Economics and Management, 2012, no. 8, pp. 151–160.
Belyi I.I. Kompleks meropriyatii po povysheniyu konkurentosposobnosti promyshlennykh predpriyatii [A set of measures to improve the competitiveness of industrial enterprises]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Gordopolov Yu.V., Postyushkov A.V. Metodologiya formirovaniya i realizatsii ekonomicheskoi strategii otechestvennykh predpriyatii. V kn.: Aktual'nye problemy sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii. Vyp. III [A methodology for forming and implementing the economic strategy of domestic enterprises. In: Actual issues of socio-economic development of Russia. Iss. 3]. Moscow, Dashkov i K Publ., 2005, pp. 103–124.
Dubrovskaya L.I. Prognozirovanie vremennykh ryadov v pakete Statistica [Forecasting time series in Statistica Software Package]. Tomsk, Tomsk State University Publ., 2012, 36 p.
Zaitsev O.N. Ekonomicheskaya ustoichivost' predpriyatiya [Economic sustainability of enterprises]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii = Economic Revival of Russia, 2006, no. 4, pp. 67–71.
Karimova A.I. Otsenka urovnya ustoichivogo razvitiya malogo predprinimatel'stva v regione [Evaluating the extent of small business development sustainability in the region]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Krasnov G.I. Model' regional'noi ekonomiki kak ob"ekt prognozirovaniya sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya klasterov [A regional economy model as an object of forecasting socio-economic development of clusters]. Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya = Modern Problems of Science and Education, 2013, no. 3.
Kuprienko N.V. Statistika. Analiz ryadov dinamiki [Statistics. Analysis of time series]. St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University Publ., 2009, 118 p.
Lutovinov P.P., Kozlov D.I. Inoi vzglyad na otsenku ustoichivosti predpriyatii metallurgicheskogo kompleksa [A different view of evaluating the sustainability of metallurgical enterprises]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2014, no. 33, pp. 39–46.
Lutovinov P.P., Kozlov D.I. Strategiya ekonomicheskoi ustoichivosti predpriyatii zheleznodorozhnogo transporta v sovremennykh usloviyakh khozyaistvovaniya [The strategy for economic sustainability of rail transport enterprises in the current economic environment]. Ekonomika zheleznykh dorog = Economics of Railways, 2014, no. 5, pp. 42–54.
Lutovinov P.P., Kozlov D.I. Upravlenie strategiei ekonomicheskoi ustoichivosti predpriyatiya [Managing the strategy for corporate economic sustainability]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2015, no. 4, pp. 13–22.
Miskhozhev E.R. Formirovanie strukturnoi modeli mekhanizma upravleniya ekonomicheskoi ustoichivost'yu mashinostroitel'nogo predpriyatiya [Formulating a structural model mechanism for managing economic sustainability of a machine-building enterprise]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Nefedov D.A. Metody approksimatsii i kolichestvennoi otsenki izderzhek finansovoi neustoichivosti [Methods for approximation and quantification of financial volatility costs]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Popov L.A. Analiz i modelirovanie trudovykh pokazatelei [Analyzing and modeling labor performance indicators]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika Publ., 1999, 208 p.
Suvorov S.B. Upravlenie strategiei ustoichivosti predpriyatiya agropromyshlennogo kompleksa [Managing the strategy for sustainability of the agricultural sector]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Fedorova E.A., Nazarova Yu.N. Faktory, vliyayushchie na izmenenie indeksa RTS rossiiskogo fondovogo rynka [Factors changing RTSI index in the Russian stock exchange]. Audit i finansovyi analiz = Audit and Financial Analysis, 2010, no. 1, pp. 1–6.
Kharzinov A.B., Makhosheva S.A., Galancheva S.V. Malyi biznes kak faktor ustoichivogo regional'nogo razvitiya [Small business as a factor for sustainable regional development]. Voprosy ekonomiki i prava = Issues of Economics and Law, 2010, no. 12, pp. 378–382.
Khomyachenkova N.A. Sovremennye aspekty monitoringa ustoichivogo razvitiya promyshlennogo predpriyatiya: metodika i praktika [Modern aspects of monitoring sustainable development of the industrial enterprise: a methodology and practice]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Khudyakova T.A., Shmidt A.V. Issledovanie, otsenka i prognozirovanie ekonomicheskoi ustoichivosti promyshlennogo predpriyatiya [Examination, assessment and forecast of economic sustainability of the industrial enterprise]. Chelyabinsk, South Ural State University Publ., 2006, 142 p.
Shamkov Yu.V., Maslov A.V. Osobennosti razrabotki i otsenki sotsial'no orientirovannoi strategii razvitiya predpriyatiya [The specifics of devising and evaluating a socially oriented strategy for corporate development]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Yunusova D.A.Ob otsenke ekonomicheskoi ustoichivosti predpriyatii v sovremennykh usloviyakh [On assessment of corporate economic sustainability in the current circumstances]. Rossiiskoe predprinimatel'stvo = Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship, 2007, no. 8.
