Importance At present, the Russian economy development dynamics, as well as the entire global economy, in general, is unstable, since it is characterized by a number of the negative trends. In addition, our country is influenced by the growing external threats, both the military and political ones, which could considerably undermine the national economy. Objectives The article aims to model scenarios for control of the economy depending on the growth of risks and managing impacts applied by the State. Methods Using the cognitive maps constructed using the language of symbol-oriented graphs, we have received a model for the country's GDP dynamics which takes into account the influence of various internal and external macroeconomic indicators. Owing to the specialized software application, developed at the Institute of Control Sciences of the RAS, we have modelled the pulses at certain graph nodes that permitted to trace the mutual influence of factors imbedded in the model. We have identified five basic scenarios: stagnation, inertial, evolutionary, insolating, and the innovative ones. We have determined that two of them, which do not envisage the managing State impacts, are absolutely unfavorable. Results According to other scenarios, the State regulation will permit, in some cases, to counteract the negative external influence, and carrying out a balanced investment policy will lead to a modernization breakthrough. Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that the tightening of sanctions against certain sectors of our economy could lead to relative isolation of its local markets and will disrupt the evolutionary development of the Russian economy. Innovation is the only scenario that would completely reach the goals facing our economy.
Glaz'ev predlozhil plan po zashchite ekonomiki Rossii ot sanktsii [Glaz’ev has proposed a plan to protect the Russian economy from sanctions]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Glaz'ev S.Yu. Otrinuv dogmy [Rejecting dogmata]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Dlya ekonomicheskogo ryvka neobkhodimy investitsii [The economic breakthrough needs investment]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Doklad TsRU: voiny blizhaishego budushchego budut za dostup k presnoi vode [The CIA report: access to fresh water will cause wars of the near future]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Zagorovskaya K. Kurs na tret'yu mirovuyu vzyat [We have already embarked on the way to the third World War]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Zapad gotovitsya k voine s Rossiei [The West is preparing for war with Russia]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Ivanov A. Amerikanskie eksperty podrobno raspisali stsenarii razrusheniya RF [The American experts described scenarios of the Russian Federation destruction in detail]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Ivanchenko P. Rossiya stanovitsya superderzhavoi [Russia is becoming a superpower]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Ivashkina D. Zhurnalist The Guardian: SShA tolkayut nas k novoi mirovoi voine [The Guardian reporter: The USA is pushing us to a new World War]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Informatsionnoe upravlenie v usloviyakh aktivnogo protivoborstva: modeli i metody [Information management in the conditions of active confrontation: models and methods]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2011, 187 p.
Lavrov: Rossiyu izolirovat' nevozmozhno, eto nerealistichnaya zadacha [Lavrov: Russia cannot be isolated, this is an unrealistic task]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
MID RF rastsenil sanktsii SShA kak novyi vid nastupatel'nogo oruzhiya [The Russian Foreign Ministry described the sanctions of the United States as a new kind of offensive weapons]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Mirovaya torgovlya buksuet vmeste s globalizatsiei [World trade breaks with globalization]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Nizhegorodtsev R.M. [Haavelmo’s Alternative and the growing points of the modern Russian economy]. Materialy IX Vserossiiskogo simpoziuma“Strategicheskoe planirovanie i razvitie predpriyatii”. Sektsiya 2. Modeli i metody razrabotki strategii predpriyatiya [Proc. 9th all-Rus. Symposium “Strategic planning and development of enterprises”. Section 2. Models and methods for developing business strategy]. Moscow, CEMI of RAS Publ., 2008, pp. 123–125.
Nizhegorodtsev R.M. Identifikatsiya i issledovanie riskov innovatsionnoi deyatel'nosti predpriyatii rossiiskogo Severa i Arktiki [Identification and study of the risks of innovation activities of enterprises of Russian North and the Arctic]. Issledovaniya i innovatsii – Research and innovation, 2013, no. 4 (4), pp. 66–72.
Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Gorid'ko N.P. [The Haavelmo principle: the increase of the government expenditures as a tool to stimulate economic upturn]. Materialy I Mezhdunarodnogo politekonomicheskogo kongressa “Politekonomiya: sotsial'nye prioritety” [Proc. Int. Conf. “Political economy: social priorities”]. Moscow, LENAND Publ., 2013, pp. 109–126.
Parlamentarii i obshchestvenniki prizvali Medvedeva otvetit' za Arktiku [Parliamentarians and public activists called on Medvedev to answer for the Arctic]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Pomoshchnik prezidenta RF Belousov: rubl' “sil'no pereoslablen” [Presidential aide Belousov: the ruble is weakened too much]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Tsaregorodtseva I. SShA gotovyat vtorzhenie na postsovetskoe prostranstvo i v Rossiyu [The USA are going to invade the post-Soviet space and Russia]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Diagnostika i stsenarnyi analiz ugroz sotsial'no-ekonomicheskomu razvitiyu Arkticheskoi zony Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Diagnostics and the scenario analysis of threats to the socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic]. Moscow, IPM of RAS Publ., 2012, 164 p.
