Home  Journals  National Interests: Priorities and Security  41(278) - 2014 November

Structural analysis of the development of industrial system

Available online: 1 November 2014

Subject Heading: STRATEGY OF ECONOMIC ADVANCEMENT

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 26-40

The article considers the issues of structural changes in the Russian industry. To examine the matter, the authors used the method of estimating the structural changes in the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the sector of machinery and equipment manufacture. The analysis is conducted with respect to the production, fixed assets and investment in fixed assets. The paper also examines the connection between the labor productivity in industry and the economic system growth, and the change of the structural independence of the industrial system. The authors determine correlation between productivity and a structural independence coefficient, and also the condition under which the improvement of the system of industrial production structure will be ensured by investment in fixed assets and enhancement of productivity. The problem of economic and industrial restructuring is considered as a system problem of control, which can be consolidated to the formation of productive proportions between the elements (sectors) of the system and their development. The mutual relations between the system parameters and identifying of factors (causes) to ensure their changes constitute the content of any structural analysis of economic systems, as exemplified by the industrial system and its major segments, i.e., engineering manufacture. The authors present a model for the optimal sector structure, which is used to examine the relationship between the structural ratio and performance, which allows determining the possibility of increasing this index based on the task of shaping the structure of that economic sector. The paper points out that the Russian engineering manufacture, as well as many types of manufacturing, experienced short-term improvement of exports opportunities only after the devaluation, which occurred in the second half of the 1990s, and in the aftermath of the global crisis of the second half of the 2000s, when imports opportunities deteriorated and emerged "forced import substitution" with respect of separate productions. The overwhelming majority of time over the past 20 years, the coefficient of structural independence of manufacturing industries and, in particular, engineering manufacture, have been worsening consistently. This process was expressed by increase of import dependence in the production of machinery and equipment, forming of elements of "imports infrastructure", which is deployed in the large engineering manufacture of the Russian regions and cities in the metropolitan areas. The article provides a regression analysis of structural changes of coefficient for engineering manufacture and presents forecast for the coming years. In addition, the paper describes the obtained multiple regression for labor productivity in the industry, and also identifies the factors that in the coming period will determine the upward trend of the system parameter.

Keywords: industry, structural analysis, development, performance, structural independence

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