National Interests: Priorities and Security

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National Interests: Priorities and Security

10(67) - 2010 May

Oil price fluctuations as a factor of instability of the Russian economy

Vol. 6, Iss. 10, MAY 2010

Available online: 19 May 2010

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

JEL Classification:

Melnikov R.M. Doctor of Economic Sciences, professor of economics and state regulation of market economy, Russian Academy of State Service under the President of the Russian Federation
rmmel@mail.ru

The paper investigates the dependence of basic macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy on the oil price fluctuations at the world market. Hypotheses about the sensitivity of macroeconomic equilibrium to the external market conditions are formulated, and simultaneous equations system is specified and estimated in order to test these hypotheses. The scenarios of reaction of the Russian economic system on external threats related to the sharp oil price cuts are analyzed, and policy recommendations aimed to minimize the negative impact of these shocks are formulated.

Keywords: macroeconomic instability, oil price fluctuations, Russian economy, simultaneous equations systems

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ISSN 2311-875X (Online)
ISSN 2073-2872 (Print)

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