Subject. The impact of the structural transformation of the Russian initial public offerings (IPO) market on the predictive power of classical placement success factors in the context of institutional isolation in 2022–2025. Objectives. Identification of factors that lost and retained their predictive ability after the structural disruption of 2022; verification of the author's adaptive index of investment signals (AISI) as a tool for diagnosing the quality of placements. Methods. A complete statistical observation of the general population of IPOs on the Moscow Stock Exchange (N = 62 for 2010–2025). Spearman's correlation analysis, the "difference of differences" method, permutation test, Leave-One-Out cross-validation, ROC analysis, portfolio experiment. Results. The inversion of key factors was revealed: the status of the "Big Four" auditor changed from 7.4 to -9.6 percentage points, the scale of the transaction and the high free float of quality factors became risk factors. The issuer's technological profile is the only stable predictor (spread of 34 percentage points). The AISI index demonstrates an accuracy of 82%, AUC = 0.9, rank correlation ? = 0.63 (p = 0.002), portfolio spread 44 percentage points (p = 0.006). Conclusions. The mechanical transfer of IPO valuation models valid for globally integrated markets to the Russian market after 2022 leads to systematic errors. The developed toolkit (AISI index) is applicable for express scoring of placements in conditions of high market uncertainty.
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