Subject. Currency crisis as an attribute of the permanent transformation of the global monetary system. Objectives. To determine the essential principles of the currency crisis as a financial and economic phenomenon and, based on a long-term retrospective analysis of the dynamics of currency crises, identify trends and factors in the development of the currency crisis in the context of the transformation of the global monetary system. Methods. General scientific methods of cognition are used: formalization, abstraction, analysis and synthesis, logic, as well as statistical and graphical methods. Results. The main approaches to the identification of currency crises are presented: the nominal approach, the approach of international reserves and the approach of speculative pressure. Through the definition of the key attributes of the currency crisis, its essence as a financial and economic phenomenon is revealed, obvious and latent signs of currency crises are highlighted. The article contains the results of an analysis of the retrospective dynamics of the exchange rate in 70 countries from 1800 to 2024, which made it possible to identify currency crises, the number and frequency of their occurrence in country and time terms. To predict currency crises, a hypothesis has been put forward for the existence of global currency cycles, which are assumed to be derived from commodity, financial and technological supercycles. Indicators of early warning of cyclical currency crises are proposed. Conclusions. A currency crisis can be defined as a situation of sudden, significant, and prolonged decline in the value of a national currency relative to foreign currencies. Suddenness, materiality and duration are the main attributes (principles) of the currency crisis as a financial and economic phenomenon that determine its essence. Based on economic logic, it is possible to hypothesize that the change in the exchange rate is cyclical. Currency supercycles are derived from commodity, financial, or technological supercycles.
FrankelA., Rose A.K. Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment. Journal of International Economics, 1996, vol. 41, iss. 3-4, pp. 351–366. DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01441-9
Tarasov M.Yu. ["Damocles" indicator as an early warning indicator for currency crises: a critical analysis]. Konkurentosposobnost' v global'nom mire: ekonomika, nauka, tekhnologii, 2023, no. 10, pp. 185–190. (In Russ.) EDN: IGPFSE
Vasina E.V. [The global financial crises and their types]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, 2015, no. 4, pp. 271–276. (In Russ.) EDN: UDUNTT
Fedorova E.A., Andreeva O.A. [Financial, banking, debt and currency crises: the specifics of the course in developed and developing countries]. Finansy i kredit, 2012, no. 45, pp. 40–50. (In Russ.) EDN: PIDTUT
Eichengreen V., Rose A.K., Wyplosz C. Exchange rate mayhem: Antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks. Economic Policy, 1995, vol. 10, iss. 21, pp. 251–268. DOI: 10.2307/1344591
Butorina O.V. Ekonomicheskaya istoriya evro [The economic history of the euro]. Moscow, Ves' Mir Publ., 2019, 576 p. EDN: EZXSGG
Ibragimov F.K. [Analysis of the dynamics of the currency segment of the international monetary fund during the period of crisis in the global economy]. Vestnik Evraziiskoi nauki, 2025, vol. 17, no. s3. (In Russ.) EDN: NEOOBJ
Gorelikov K.A. [The theoretical foundations for the study of currency crises]. Ekonomicheskie sistemy, 2017, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 67–68. (In Russ.) EDN: YUTHFJ
Levkovich A.P. [Currency crisis as form of monetary and financial instability: concept, sources, models]. Nauchnye trudy Belorusskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, 2023, iss. 16, pp. 204–209. (In Russ.) EDN: PJDPUS
Kaminsky G.L., Reinhart C.M. The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems. The American Economic Review, 1999, vol. 89, no. 3, pp. 473–500. DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.3.473
Maier N.V. [Currency restrictions and currency controls]. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki, 2011, no. 1, pp. 11–12. (In Russ.) EDN: OPQNVZ
Tarasov M.Yu. [Currency crises in the context of global currency wars]. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya, 2025, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 11–30. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.18334/eo.15.1.122458 EDN: OITXMQ
Kiguel M., O’Connell S.A. Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries. The World Bank Research Observer, 1995, vol. 10, iss. 1, pp. 21–52. DOI: 10.1093/wbro/10.1.21
Shpringel' V.K. [The problem of external debt and the economic development of Latin America in the 1980s]. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 1999, no. 2, pp. 186–210. (In Russ.) EDN: YLRJLQ
McFadden D. [Hot money and cold comfort]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya, 2005, no. 6, pp. 6–14. (In Russ.) EDN: KVSPWN
Fursov K.A. [Decolonization of the Afro-Asian world: prerequisites, stages and models]. Afro-aziatskie obshchestva: istoriya i sovremennost', 2015, no. 2, pp. 5–19. (In Russ.) EDN: TQKXNX
Tarasov M.Yu. [The transformation of the international monetary system: from the Paris agreement to the post-Jamaica international monetary order]. Ekonomicheskie otnosheniya, 2025, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 289–310. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.18334/eo.15.2.122473 EDN: AYCAKT
Parfenov A.A. [Modern financial crises through the prism of theory and practice]. Finansovye rynki i banki, 2019, no. 1, pp. 59–64. (In Russ.) EDN: QRYGUD
Belousov V.D., Biryukov V.A. [Problem of cyclic crises in the modern macroeconomic theory]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 6. Ekonomika, 2011, no. 1, pp. 15–39. (In Russ.) EDN: NWBOAJ
Rastyannikova E.V. [Super-cycle in the commodity market: case studies of the BRICS countries]. Vostochnaya analitika, 2017, no. 1-2, pp. 67–71. (In Russ.) EDN: YQRGJS
Smirnov A.D. [Cyclical dynamics of money and debt]. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 2024, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 363–411. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2024-28-3-363-411 EDN: MTFSGI
Baffers J., Kabundi A. Do Supercycles Dominate Commodity Price Movements? Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 237, no. 111646. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111646
Glaz'ev S.Yu. Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tekhniko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Theory of long-term technical and economic development]. Moscow, VlaDar Publ., 1993, 310 p. EDN: YSXIUV
Peres K. Tekhnologicheskie revolyutsii i finansovyi kapital. Dinamika puzyrei i periodov protsvetaniya [Technological revolutions and financial capital. Dynamics of bubbles and periods of prosperity]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2011, 232 p. EDN: QULVFB