Home  Journals  Financial Analytics: Science and Experience  4(374) - 2025 October-December

A short-term stock performance evaluation model: The S&P 500 Index

ISSUE 4, DECEMBER 2025

Article PDF Version

Received: 1 August 2025

Accepted: 5 September 2025

Available online: 27 November 2025

Subject Heading: FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS

JEL Classification: C51, G11, G12, G17

Pages: 53-64

https://doi.org/10.24891/vfeyld

Subject. This article analyzes the dependence of stock yield (the S&P 500 Index) on lagged variables that characterize the going rate, the state of economy, and the companies’ performance.
Objectives. The article aims to expand the set of tools used when portfolio setting-up.
Methods. For the study, I used the time series regression analysis.
Results. The article proposes a model that can help obtain estimates of the parameters of probability distribution of the projected profitability over the 1?year interval. The regression coefficients are significant, and the coefficient of determination for the considered data sets is 29 to 36 percent. The efficiency of the model for the considered time series (1945–2024) exceeds the efficiency of using the historical average return in terms of the standard error relative to the realized return.
Relevance. The results obtained can complement the set of tools for decision-making by investors in the stock market.

Keywords: stock market, stock yield, inflation, multivariate regression, lagged variables

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