Subject. This article analyzes the Russian financial system. Objectives. The article aims to identify the key macroeconomic processes affecting the stability of the Russian financial system. Methods. For the study, I used analysis and synthesis, special economic and mathematical methods, in particular, correlation and regression analysis, as well as a graphical method of presenting the results obtained. Results. The article reveals an active growth of the money supply, materialized by an increase in lending and money issuance by the Bank of Russia, causing increased demand for bonds and investors' uncertainty about the long-term prospects of the stock market. The budget deficit was covered through increasing the government bonds issue in the context of increasing the Bank of Russia's requirements for reserves and liquidity standards of other financial institutions, and the excess of other assets over the net foreign assets of the banking system is identified. At the same time, the ratio of non-financial sector debt over household debt and the ratio of loans owed (including overdue and at preferential interest rates) by small and medium-sized enterprises to similar debts owed by resident legal entities and individual entrepreneurs demonstrate a gradual reduction in the gap between the sectors. Conclusions. The identified key macroeconomic processes can be informative when shaping fiscal policy.
Keywords: stocks, budget, debt, liquidity, bonds
References:
Goryunov E.L., Drobyshevskii S.M., Kudrin A.L., Trunin P.V. [Causes and lessons of accelerating global inflation]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023, no. 7, pp. 5‒34. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34 EDN: ILALNI
Drobyshevskii S.M., Perevyshin Yu.N., Sinel'nikov-Murylev S.G., Trunin P.V. [Reasons for accelerating inflation in the Russian economy]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2025, no. 1, pp. 5‒31. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2025-1-5-31 EDN: MYOWUB
Tetteh B., Ntsiful E. A comparative analysis of the performances of macroeconomic indicators during the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine War: The Ghanaian case. Research in Globalization, 2023, vol. 7, no. 100174. DOI: 1016/j.resglo.2023.100174
Dominguez K.M.E., Yuko Hashimoto, Takatoshi Ito. International reserves and the global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics, 2012, vol. 88, iss. 2, pp. 388‒406. DOI: 1016/j.jinteco.2012.03.003
Community, Economy and COVID-19: Lessons from Multi-Country Analyses of a Global Pandemic. Ed. by C.J. Shultz II, D.R. Rahtz, M.J. Sirgy. Springer Cham, 2022, 1174 p.
Sohag K., Kalina I., Elsayed A.H. Financial stress in Russia: Exploring the impact of oil market shocks. Resources Policy, 2023, vol. 86, part B, no. 104150. DOI: 1016/j.resourpol.2023.104150
Khan H.H. Bank competition, financial development and macroeconomic stability: Empirical evidence from emerging economies. Economic Systems, 2022, vol. 46, iss. 4, no. 101022. DOI: 1016/j.ecosys.2022.101022
Medvedev D. Social and economic development of Russia: Finding new dynamics. Russian Journal of Economics, 2016, vol. 2, iss. 4, pp. 327‒348. DOI: 1016/j.ruje.2016.11.001
Medvedev D.A. [A New Reality: Russia and Global Challenges]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2015, no. 10, pp. 5–29. (In Russ.) DOI: 32609/0042-8736-2015-10-5-29 EDN: UKKKXB
Mohanty S., Sethi N., Dash D.P. What determines outward FDI in developing blocs? A new empirical comparative macroeconomic perspective of post 1990s. Heliyon, 2024, vol. 10, iss. 23, no. e40320. DOI: 1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40320
Gammeltoft P. Emerging multinationals: Outward FDI from the BRICS countries. International Journal of Technology and Globalisation, 2008, vol. 4, iss. 1, pp. 5‒22. DOI: 1504/IJTG.2008.016184
Xiaoying Li, Xiaming Liu. Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship. World Development, 2005, vol. 33, iss. 3, pp. 393‒407. DOI: 1016/j.worlddev.2004.11.001
Baqaee D., Malmberg H. Long-Run Consequences of Sanctions on Russia. NBER Working Paper 33506, 2025, 9 p. DOI: 3386/w33506
Hsuan-Chi Chen, Robin K. Chou, Chih-Yung Lin, Chien-Lin Lu. Too big to fail? Asymmetric effects of quantitative easing. Journal of Financial Stability, 2025, vol. 77, no. 101385. DOI: 1016/j.jfs.2025.101385
Barth J.R., Caprio G.Jr., Levine R. Bank regulation and supervision: what works best? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2004, vol. 13, iss. 2, pp. 205‒248. DOI: 1016/j.jfi.2003.06.002
Blum J. Do capital adequacy requirements reduce risks in banking? Journal of Banking & Finance, 1999, vol. 23, iss. 5, pp. 755‒771. DOI: 1016/S0378-4266(98)00113-7
Amidu M., Wolfe S. Does bank competition and diversification lead to greater stability? Evidence from emerging markets. Review of Development Finance, 2013, vol. 3, iss. 3, pp. 152‒166. DOI: 1016/j.rdf.2013.08.002
Clark E., Radić N., Sharipova A. Bank competition and stability in the CIS markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2018, vol. 54, pp. 190‒203. DOI: 1016/j.intfin.2017.12.005
Fernández A.I., González F., Suárez N. Banking stability, competition, and economic volatility. Journal of Financial Stability, 2016, vol. 22, pp. 101‒120. DOI: 1016/j.jfs.2016.01.005