Oleg Yu. BORISOVPeter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation borisov.ol@inbox.ru ORCID id: not available
Irina A. SMIRNOVAPeter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation ir_almazova@mail.ru ORCID id: not available
Subject. This article deals with the issues related to the stability of the region's electricity system. Objectives. The article aims to develop an original approach to monitoring the stability of the region's electric power system. Methods. For the study, we used a fuzzy logic approach. Results. The article proposes an algorithm for monitoring the stability of the region's electric power system based on socially accessible information, based on a fuzzy approach. The proposed forecasting research algorithm consists of five successive steps. The result of the forecasting was a polynomial function reflecting the change in the parameter of the load on the system over time. Conclusions and Relevance. The consumption indicator over time is unstable, prone to sharp changes both negatively and positively, which may be due to the specifics of the formation of demand for electricity, where the consumer's decision is of key importance. The results of the study can be used to develop strategies for regional electricity consumption systems, and can also be implemented in the practice of specific electric power enterprises as part of making forecasts for energy consumption.
Keywords: electric energy system, continuous monitoring, system stability, decision tree
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