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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Reducing the uncertainty through analysis of the system structure

Vol. 12, Iss. 2, JUNE 2019

Received: 27 November 2018

Received in revised form: 24 December 2018

Accepted: 14 January 2019

Available online: 30 May 2019

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: C51, D21, P42, P52

Pages: 128–149

https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.12.2.128

Sinyavskii N.G. Financial University under Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
synyavsky@list.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1034-6489

Subject There are various methods to reduce the uncertainty of knowledge about the economic system. For instance, through experiment or analysis of the system. The latter enables to improve the quality of information about the system's important integral characteristics. However, this assumption is true only under certain circumstances, which are considered in the article.
Objectives The aim of the study is to unveil conditions for reducing the uncertainty in evaluating the probabilistic characteristics of economic system based on experiments and through the analysis of the system's structure and mutual influence of its elements.
Methods I employ the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics.
Results The analysis of specifics of the experimental approach shows difficulties as applied to economic systems. The paper illustrates cases when the analysis of economic system reduces the uncertainty of its probabilistic characteristics evaluation. It also shows that the analysis enables to reduce the uncertainty in cases when elementary risks are relatively low (or, on the contrary, relatively high) and the errors of risk assessment are negligible.
Conclusions The analysis of empirical approach to the problem of uncertainty reduction shows that this approach is often difficult for implementation. I also conclude on the effectiveness of such an analysis in cases of practical importance.

Keywords: uncertainty, risk, experiment, analysis, system

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