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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Methods for managing risks of investment programs in Oil & Gas

Vol. 10, Iss. 1, JANUARY 2017

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 5 July 2016

Received in revised form: 20 October 2016

Accepted: 7 December 2016

Available online: 17 January 2017

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: C65

Pages: 29-48

https://doi.org/10.24891/fa.10.1.29

Gracheva M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
grachevamv@mail.ru

Stepanova M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
stepanova.marina9@gmail.com

Importance It has become very important recently to select effective methods for assessing risks of investment programs in the oil and gas industry. It stems from high uncertainty at each phase of the program implementation. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the existing tools and determine methods to comprehensively assess risks of investment programs.
Objectives The research analyzes the existing risks for the oil and gas industry and determines quantitative and qualitative methods of mathematical modeling in economics, which could be used in risk management.
Methods The research applies general research methods and techniques, i.e. comparison, analysis, generalization, modeling.
Results We devised a risk management scheme, which can be used for large projects and proposed optimal methods to assess risks at each phase of the investment program.
Conclusions and Relevance We conclude that it is important to use tools of mathematical modeling in economics in order to make effective investment decisions on oil and gas projects, and choose tools for modeling, analysis and assessment of risks depending on the investment project phase. The research highlights the industrial specifics in choosing appropriate methods of risk assessment. The approach makes the risk management process more flexible.

Keywords: oil & gas industry, risk, investment program, exogenous factor, endogenous factor

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