Didenko V.Yu.Financial University under the Government of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation vydidenko@fa.ru
Importance The article analyzes economic downturns and bank crises. Objectives The research identifies types of crises and the role of the banking crisis in them. I also determine whether the modeling is needed to detect the crisis, and analyze recessions in the banking sector. The article indicates the level of financial sustainability of national credit institutions so to justify the reasonableness of the Central Bank's policy in relation to them. Methods Relying upon methods of dynamic analysis, I investigated downturns in the banking sector and economic slowdowns. Based on the dialectical method, I reviewed scientific stances on the correlation between the banking sustainability and economic indices. Results The article presents methods for evaluating the economic and banking recession. The analysis of banking downturns reveals ambiguous trends influenced with various factors. Conclusions and Relevance The article systematizes scholarly views on the asymmetry of business cycles, and the status of the banking sector. I made a comparative conclusion on uprising trends in the groups of credit institutions operating in the domestic banking sector; systematized credit institutions’ data on their assets and liabilities, and GDP. The research delineates periods of recessions in economy and banking.
Keywords: crisis, recession, bank, economy
References:
Rее J.J.K. Impact of the Global Crisis on Banking Sector Soundness in Asian Low-Income Countries. IMF Working Paper, 2011, no. WP/11/115, р. 34.
Bremus F., Marcel F. Drivers of Structural Change in Cross-Border Banking Since the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, vol. 52, pp. 32–59.
Rousseau P.L., Wachtel P. What is Happening to the Impact of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth. Economic Inquiry, 2011, vol. 49, iss. 1, pp. 276–288.
Fernandez de Guevara J., Maudos J. Banking Competition and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence. The European Journal of Finance, 2011, vol. 17, iss. 8, pp. 739–764.
Neftçi S.N. Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric Over the Business Cycle? Journal of Political Economy, 1984, vol. 92, iss. 2, pp. 307–328.
Falk B. Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series Over the Business Cycle. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, vol. 94, iss. 5, pp. 1096–l109.
De Long J.B., Summers L.H. Are Business Cycles Symmetrical? In: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change. Chicago, IL, Chicago University Press, 1986.
Diebold F.X., Rudebusch G.D. A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle. Journal of Political Economy, 1990, vol. 98, iss. 3, pp. 987–1107.
Smirnov S.V. [Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness ‘in real time’: the 2008–2009 recession]. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VShE = HSE Economic Journal, 2012, no. 4, pp. 479–513. (In Russ.)
Sviridov O.Yu. [Specifics of the global economic crisis during financial globalization]. TERRA ECONOMICUS, 2009, no. 3-2, pp. 291–296. (In Russ.)
Demirguc-Kunt A., Detragiache E. The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 1998, vol. 45, iss. 1, pp. 81–109.
Monnin P., Jokipii T. The Impact of Banking Sector Stability on the Real Economy. Swiss National Bank Working Paper, 2010, no. 5.
Takami M.Y., Tabak B.M. Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector. Banco Central do Brasil, Working Paper Series, 2007, no. 135.
Gudelytė L. Modelling of Systemic of Banking Sector. Social Technologies, 2013, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 359–371.
Beaudry P., Koop G. Do Recessions Permanently Change Output? Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993, vol. 31, iss. 2, pp. 149–163.
Campbell J.Y., Mankiw N.G. Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? TheQuarterly Journal of Economics, 1987, vol. 102, iss. 4, pp. 857–880.
Diebold F.X., Rudebusch G.D. Long Memory and Persistence in Aggregate Output. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, vol. 24, iss. 2, pp. 189–209.
Kashyap A.K., Stein J.C., Wilcox D.W. Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Reply. TheAmerican Economic Review, 1996, vol. 86, no. 1, pp. 310–314.
Sutton C.N., Jenkins B. The Role of Financial Services Sector in Expanding Economic Opportunity. Cambridge, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2007.
Vernikov A.V. [National champions and the competitive structure of the Russian banking market]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2013, no. 3, pp. 94–108. (In Russ.)
Fedosova N.S., Radyukova Ya.Yu. [Mergers and acquisitions as a tool to increase the competitiveness of the banking system]. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie yavleniya i protsessy = Socio-Economic Phenomena and Processes, 2013, no. 4, pp. 226–228. (In Russ.)
Korotaeva N.V., Vetrova T.N. [Capitalization as the basis for the Russian banking development]. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie yavleniya i protsessy = Socio-Economic Phenomena and Processes, 2012, no. 2, pp. 78–83. (In Russ.)
Didenko V.Yu. [Banking crisis dialectics within the system of monetary regulation]. Vosproizvodstvo Rossii v XXI veke: dialektika reguliruemogo razvitiya, k 80-letiyu vykhoda v svet knigi Dzh. M. Keinsa ‘Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg’: materialy III Mezhdunarodnoi nauchnoi konferentsii [Proc. Int. Sci. Conf. Reproduction of Russia in the 21st Century: Dialectics of Regulated Development. On the 80th Anniversary of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by J.M. Keynes]. Moscow, Financial University under Government of Russian Federation Publ., 2016.
