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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Estimation of the payback period of investment projects: economic and mathematical assessment of accuracy

Vol. 9, Iss. 16, APRIL 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 15 March 2016

Accepted: 28 March 2016

Available online: 27 April 2016

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING IN ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: C65, G17

Pages: 20-29

Kirillov Yu.V. Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
kirillov_yu@ngs.ru

Nazimko E.N. Novosibirsk Institute of Humanities, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
enn2003@yandex.ru

Importance The payback period is one of critical indicators of any investment project efficiency. We propose our own analytical formula that allows presenting the payback period as a function of project indicators, thus streamlining computations and using functional capabilities to build investment efficiency models.
Objectives The research compares how the payback period is computed with two methods, and convinces opponents of the analytical formula their views are unreasonable as they state the formula is impracticable.
Methods As for the recursive and logic procedure based on the financial equivalence principle, we referred to the way each discrete payment of the profitable part of the project is presented as l-term permanent rents, when total present value of income constitutes a function of the number of l-payments per annum. The article provides the economic and mathematical rationale for the methodology used.
Results Illustrating specific cases, we demonstrate how the payback period reduces when the number of l-payments increases in the given circumstances. The marginal increase in l-parameter makes the payback period computed with the recursive and logic procedure match the analytical formula. The best results become feasible when the investor plans its proceeds as annual payments in advance.
Conclusions and Relevance The payback period of the project can be managed if the form of proceeds is chosen. The analytical formula is invariant in relation to types of proceeds, thus it can be used for economic and mathematical models of investment efficiency evaluation, rather than for computations only.

Keywords: term, payback, present value, computation accuracy

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