+7 925 966 4690, 9am6pm (GMT+3), Monday – Friday
ИД «Финансы и кредит»

JOURNALS

  

FOR AUTHORS

  

SUBSCRIBE

    
Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Real options as project risk management tools

Vol. 9, Iss. 10, MARCH 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 28 December 2015

Accepted: 3 February 2016

Available online: 16 March 2016

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING IN ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: С61, D92

Pages: 2-14

Gracheva M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
grachevamv@mail.ru

Petreneva E.A. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
petrenevaea@gmail.com

Importance Currently, investing activities are associated with significant risks. Projects can be mainly implemented if project risks are effectively managed. The changeability of decisions can be qualified as a real option. Models for evaluating real options should be coupled with generally accepted methods of project analysis for purposes of effective management in uncertainty.
     Objectives The research analyzes real options as tools to manage project risks.
     Methods The real options analysis method was compared with methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks as used for project management purposes. We briefly overview economic and mathematical methods for evaluating real options, and analyze them as management models.
     Results We reviewed various real options; identified a correlation between them and project risks; analyzed factors building the value of real options; considered examples of an option-based approach to analyze investment projects. The article formulates an algorithm for analyzing real options and selecting an evaluation model in line with a project risk type and the nature of source data.
     Conclusions and Relevance The real options method and project risk analysis methods can be used to take decisions in the unstable economic environment. Risk manageability can be very valuable in non-stationary conditions, however in such circumstances the evaluation of real options can be complicated, thus requiring a more thorough examination.

Keywords: real option, risk, management, unsteady conditions

References:

  1. Krukovskii A.A. Metod real'nykh optsionov v upravlenii investitsiyami [The real options method in investment management]. Trudy ISA RAN = Proceedings of ISA RAS, 2008, vol. 37, pp. 122–144.
  2. Damodaran A. Investitsionnaya otsenka. Instrumenty i tekhnika otsenki lyubykh aktivov [Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques Determining the Value of Any Asset]. Moscow, Al'pina Biznes Buks Publ., 2004, 1342 p.
  3. Huchzermeier A., Loch C.H. Project Management under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R&D. Management Science, 2001, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 85–101.
  4. Alesii G. VaR in Real Options Analysis. Review of Financial Economics, 2005, vol. 14, iss. 3-4, pp. 189–208.
  5. Petreneva E.A. Primenenie sostavnykh real'nykh optsionov pri otsenke mnogostadiinykh proektov [The use of compound real options to evaluate multiple-stage projects]. Audit i finansovyi analiz = Audit and Financial Analysis, 2014, no. 5, pp. 203–211.
  6. Vilenskii P.L., Livshits V.N., Smolyak S.A. Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov: teoriya i praktika [The valuation of investment project effectiveness: theory and practice]. Moscow, Delo Publ., 2002, 888 p.
  7. Cassimon B., Baecker D.E., Engelen P.J., van Wouwe M., Yordanov V. Incorporating Technical Risk in Compound Real Option Models to Value a Pharmaceutical R&D Licensing Opportunity. Research Policy, 2011, vol. 40, iss. 9, pp. 1200–1216.
  8. Schwartz E.S. Patents and R&D as Real Options. NBER Working Paper, 2001, no. 10114.
  9. Leone M.I., Oriani R. The Option Value of Patent Licenses. University of California Berkeley, 2007.
  10. Fleten S.-E., Haugom E., Ullrich C.J. The Real Options to Shutdown, Startup, and Abandon: Empirical Evidence. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 2012.
  11. Benaroch M., Lichtenstein Y., Robinson K. Real Options in Information Technology Risk Management: An Empirical Validation of Risk-Option Relationships. MIS Quarterly, 2006, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 827–864.
  12. Gray C.F., Larson E.W. Upravlenie proektami. Prakticheskoe rukovodstvo [Project Management. The Managerial Process]. Moscow, Delo i Servis Publ., 2003, 528 p.
  13. Pakes A. Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks Source. Econometrica, 1986, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 755–784.
  14. Livshits V.N. O metodologii otsenki effektivnosti rossiiskikh investitsionnykh proektov. Nauchnyi doklad [On the methodology for evaluating the efficiency of the Russian investment projects. Scientific report]. Moscow, Institute of Economics of RAS Publ., 2009, 70 p.
  15. Kostyuk V.N. Teoriya evolyutsii i sotsioekonomicheskie protsessy [The theory of evolution and socio-economic processes]. Moscow, URSS Publ., 2001, 176 p.
  16. Livshits V.N. Osnovy sistemnogo myshleniya i sistemnogo analiza [The basis of systems thinking and system analysis]. Moscow, Institute of Economics of RAS Publ., 2013, 54 p.
  17. Copeland Т., Antikarov V. Real Options. A Practitioner's Guide. Texere, 2003, 384 p.
  18. Benaroch M. Managing Information Technology Investment Risk: A Real Options Perspective. Journal of Management Information Systems, 2002, vol. 19, iss. 2, pp. 43–84. Available at: Link.

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8768 (Online)
ISSN 2073-4484 (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 17, Iss. 1
March 2024

Archive