Importance The article deals with aspects of assessing the efficiency of some expenditures, when economic activity slows down and certain difficulties arise in forming the profitable part of budgets in the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. Objectives The research analyzes trends in the Krasnodar Krai's budgetary spending on the governmental agricultural program and assesses how effectively it is implemented. We also examine the structure of the State agricultural development program of the Krasnodar Krai, projected results of its completion, and anticipated expenditures to implement intended activities and assess the efficacy of the said expenditures. The article proposes the concept for building a probabilistic model for budgetary spending, which complements their efficiency assessment methods. Methods Using mathematical methods, we analyzed various aspects that made up the efficiency of implementing the governmental program to develop the Krasnodar Krai's agriculture, and calculated parameters of the Krasnodar Krai's budgetary expenditures for the program implementation. Results We found the main challenges of finance for the governmental program for the Krasnodar Krai's agricultural development, and formulated possible solutions. Conclusions and Relevance As Russia cuts its budgetary expenditures for agricultural development, goals and purposes of governmental programs may remain unattained, thus leading to lower results of both separate program activities and programs as a whole and affecting the efficiency of regions' budgetary expenditures. The findings may be used by governmental authorities in the Russian regions to draft agricultural programs, set their target indicators and plan budgetary expenditures for implementing the above.
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