Importance The article focuses on the issues of outlining the worst case scenario of the environmental and economic development of the region through extrapolation and examples of the Kyrgyz Republic. Objectives The research finds and describes the trajectory of the environmental and economic development in the country by extrapolating environmental and economic trends into the future. Methods The research is based on a systems approach, methods of statistics and scientific abstraction. Results I found and analyzed environmental and economic processes, which are significant in terms of the region's environmental and economic security. The existing environmental and economic trends, if they persist, may considerably impair the environmental and economic situation in the country. The article presents the main factors and conditions, which jointly contribute to the pessimistic scenario of the regional development. Conclusions and Relevance The current environmental and economic situation deteriorates in Kyrgyzstan. The poverty, constant demographic growth and low assimilation capacity of the mountainous have an adverse effect on the quality of natural capital. It is especially reasonable for Kyrgyzstan to plan and project scenarios of its environmental and economic development, since the administration lacks strategic planning. I demonstrate that, if the existing trends persist, regional socio-economic, natural and environmental factors and conditions will jointly result in strong environmental and economic constraints. Simply extrapolating the existing environmental and economic trends, I manage to make a pessimistic development scenario implying that Kyrgyzstan will not find the path to the sustainable development and implement capabilities of the green economy.
Keywords: economic policy, environmental security, poverty, green economy, scenario-based planning
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