Kilyachkov N.A.Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Moscow, Russian Federation NKil@hotbox.ru
Importance The global economy experiences periodic changes in GDP growth rates that regularly develop into economic crises. A model for describing this process should be of considerable scientific and practical interest. Objectives The paper explores the dynamics of the model's bifurcation parameters within short intervals of time. Methods The proposed dynamic model was devised using the information on growth rates of GDP as reported in the World Bank website. We applied the least squares method and a sliding approximation interval to determine coefficients of approximating polynomials. It is appropriate to use a five year interval for determining the coefficients of the approximating polynomial. The accuracy of statistical data approximation is assessed with a determination coefficient. Results The proposed model describes trends in the world economy over short time intervals. As a result of this study, qualitative characteristics of the model were obtained, including convergence areas, stable fixed points, stable cycles and dynamic stability areas. Moreover, areas of convergence represent a fractal patterns. Conclusions and Relevance As compared with statistical data, growth rates of global GDP coincide with convergence areas of the discrete dynamic model, indicating the importance of studying the qualitative characteristics of the model to describe global economic processes.
Keywords: stable fixed points, stable cycles, dynamic stability areas, areas of convergence, fractal patterns
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