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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Analyzing the role of the RF Central Bank in forming money supply in 2009-2015

Vol. 8, Iss. 43, NOVEMBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 16 July 2015

Accepted: 26 August 2015

Available online: 25 November 2015

Subject Heading: MONITORING OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 44-59

Vashchelyuk N.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
vashchelyukn@gmail.com

Importance After the global financial crisis, the Bank of Russia actively tries to improve the operational mechanism of monetary policy, thus necessitating a research into the effect of the current changes on macroeconomic conditions.
     Objectives The research aims at analyzing what effect the operational mechanism of monetary policy has on the money supply in the Russian economy.
     Methods Based on econometric methods and procedures, I identified the specifics of money supply formation in the Russian economy after the global financial crisis. The correlation between macroeconomic indicators are analyzed using vector autoregressive models and correction of errors, Granger test, and the Johansen test.
     Results There is a correlation between the monetary base and requirements of credit institutions to private and public non-financial organizations. It was the first analysis of the correlation between the volume of refinancing transactions the Central Bank makes in favor of credit institutions and requirements of the banking system to private non-financial organizations. Loans of the Bank of Russia have a positive effect on corporate lending.
     Conclusions and Relevance When the Bank of Russia refinances credit institutions, it forms their basic resources and has a positive effect on lending to private non-financial organizations. However, the Bank of Russia should more rely upon special refinancing tools. Based on an extensive sample, I empirically analyzed how the money supply correlates with economic agents' demand for loans after the crisis. It provided new data on the endogenous nature of money supply in Russia during the period of June 2009 through May 2015.

Keywords: tool, monetary policy, endogenous money supply, interest rate

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