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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Forecasting the financial position of entities operating in the therapeutic resort and recreation sector of Greater Yalta

Vol. 8, Iss. 34, SEPTEMBER 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 1 June 2015

Accepted: 15 June 2015

Available online: 7 October 2015

Subject Heading: Economic policy

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 23-40

Malyshenko V.A. Academy for Humanities and Pedagogy, Branch of V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Yalta, Republic of Crimea, Russian Federation
Malyshenko1973@inbox.ru

Importance The research focuses on the process of a strategically oriented financial analysis of the entity in terms of rapid assessment of its financial position. The subject reveals issues of studying the financial position from strategic and long-term perspectives at initial steps of analysis, using the most common methods.
     Objectives The objective of the research is to verify or disprove a hypothesis on the need to develop new analytical methods (models) that would satisfy requirements to strategic forecasting the financial position. The hypothesis is specified so to evaluate whether it is possible to set up a versatile model for financial position assessment, considering the effect of external environment.
     Methods The research relies upon general principles of the systems analysis. The matrix approach is the central method of the research. I also apply graphical and statistical methods in relation to average values, analysis of dynamic series, etc.
     Results The research generated a comprehensive method for a financial analysis and forecasting through the matrix ratio of the original visual profile of the internal environment (a particular type of financial condition - the Fregat model) and dynamic type of the external environment.
     Conclusions and Relevance As a rule, the graphical method is used to visualize the resulting area in line with indicators obtained from the analysis of financial position and the target financial position that should be attained within one monitoring period (year or quarter). In comparison with the traditional methods, the Fregat model is more preferable to use as it allows finding more differentiated types, including projected ones, and identifying life cycles of the entity.

Keywords: imbalances, financial strategy, financial analysis, model, coefficient

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