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ИД «Финансы и кредит»






Financial Analytics: Science and Experience

Considering project risks in non-stationary conditions

Vol. 8, Iss. 32, AUGUST 2015

Received: 11 June 2015

Received in revised form: 8 July 2015

Accepted: 18 July 2015

Available online: 6 September 2015


JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-14

Gracheva M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation

Importance Any investment project is based on certain principles, with the analysis of project risks playing an important role. The current economic situation is volatile and unstable. It should be taken into account when taking reasonable and appropriate investment project decisions. Therefore, it is especially relevant to consider non-stationary conditions when analyzing risks associated with investment projects.
     Objectives The research uses tools of mathematical modeling in economics as applied during making investment project decisions under volatility. The research aims at identifying the principal properties of non-stationary situation so to adapt traditional methods of risk analysis respectively, brief review of risk analysis techniques and methods used in the project approach, presenting how unconventional risk analysis approaches may be applied in non-stationary conditions, and developing economic and mathematical models.
     Methods The article describes the main and most frequent methods for analyzing project risks, adapts classical methods of risk analysis to non-stationary conditions, and analyzes possibilities of applying some unconventional risk analysis approaches and economic and mathematical modeling methods in non-stationary conditions.
     Results The article demonstrates possibilities of using classical approaches to analyzing risks in non-stationary conditions through their adaptation, reviews prospects of using unconventional risk analysis methods, presents tools of economic and mathematical modeling of project risks management processes and formulates prospects of their practical use.
     Conclusions and Relevance I scrutinized a wide spectrum of approaches and methods used to analyze project risks, including conditional and unconditional approaches. The analysis is of special significance as it overviews methods and tools of risk analysis in real investment. I studied whether the presented methods for analyzing project risks could be adapted to non-stationary conditions. I conclude that it is important to use economic and mathematical modeling tools in non-stationary conditions so to take appropriate investment decisions.

Keywords: investment activity, non-stationary situation, risk management, analysis, modeling


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