Giraev V.K.Dagestan State Institute of National Economy, Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan, Russian Federation vgaaf@rambler.ru
Importance Taxes and levies constitute the main source of the State financial resources. Considering the projected amount of tax revenue, it is possible to formulate scenarios of economic development, earmark finance for federal and regional programs of production, social and financial infrastructure, and perform social programs. These issues are relevant to stimulate the regions' development focusing on internal resources and performance of import substitution programs. Objectives To evaluate what effect taxation has on the socio-economic development of regions and the State, it is reasonable to implement tax planning and forecasting methods on the basis of tax potential. The research pursues developing the method for forecasting tax revenue with chain matrix models that consider the existing structure of the region's economy. Methods The research employs a matrix method, i.e. the method of scientific research into properties on the basis of the chain matrix models. The proposed method for forecasting a tax revenue relies upon statistical methods, factor analysis approach, and correlation. Results I have devised a scientifically proven method for forecasting tax revenues so that the estimated tax revenue could be adjusted at any stage and in relation to any tax. It is especially important considering frequent changes in the Russian tax laws, altering items of taxes and mechanism for their payment. Conclusions and Relevance The proposed approach to forecasting tax revenue is significant for tax and budgetary planning since it considers a set of conditions and parameters of the region's economic development, allowing to effectively organize the region's financial resource management system in line with taxpayers' performance indicators in the real sector of economy.
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