On the risk of the unprepared scientific, technological and production base of entities of the military-industrial complex for implementing military production programs and plans
Bokov S.I.46th Central Research Institute, Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation bokov.s.i@mail.ru
Podol'skii A.G.46th Central Research Institute, Ministry of Defence of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation podolskijag@mail.ru
Importance The article examines the improvement of the methodological framework for assessing the risk of corporate unpreparedness for performing the State defense order. We substantiate the need in the framework and the production and technological base of the military-industrial complex, which requires a substantial injection of public funds. Objectives The research pursues improving the quality of the methodological framework for evaluating the feasibility of military production programs and plans. Methods The research employs the methodology of a systems analysis. The article proposes a methodological approach presented as a combination of stages, with each of them being formulated as a rule (principle) that, if performed, will facilitate an unbiased assessment of the risk. Results Risk assessment should follow a comprehensive examination of whether the scientific, technological and production base of military-industrial entities is prepared to implement (manufacture) materials, technologies, electronic components, subsystems, machines, nodes and parts. To make the article practice-oriented and align it with the preparation and enforcement of planning documents, in assessing risks, we consider the time factor and vital types of resources (labor, financial, technical, technological), which, if available, enable military-industrial entities to be prepared for manufacturing military products and components. Conclusions and Relevance The article may be used to devise a method for assessing the risk of the unpreparedness of the scientific, technological and production base of military-industrial entities for implementing the military production programs and products, and increasing the reasonableness of planning decisions.
Keywords: risk, military-industrial complex, scientific, technological, production base, military products, scheduled activity
References:
Novichkov N., Dedyushko D. Dognat' i peregnat' SSSR. Rossiiskii OPK nakhodit novykh partnerov i polozhitel'no vliyaet na starykh [Catch up with the Soviet Union and outperform it. The Russian military-industrial complex finds new partners and has a positive effect on the former ones]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
Balaban E.I., Gal'chenko A.V., Tegin V.A. Primenenie tsenometricheskogo metoda opredeleniya stoimosti seriinykh obraztsov boevoi tekhniki dlya vypolneniya dolgosrochnogo issledovatel'skogo prognoza ee zakupok [A long-term research forecast of military equipment purchase rate (mass production models): a new technique of cost determination based on a price-metric analysis]. Vooruzhenie i ekonomika = Armament and Economics, 2015, no. 1, pp. 83–98.
Bokov S.I. Novye ekonomicheskie podkhody k formirovaniyu rabot v mezhvedomstvennoi sisteme [New economic approaches to works within the interdepartmental system]. Nauchno-tekhnicheskii sbornik Izvestiya = Izvestiya Scientific Research Compilation, 2012, no. 250, pp. 69–77.
Bokov S.I. Raschet trudoemkosti i ob"ema material'nykh zatrat (tsenoobrazovaniya sistemnykh nauchno-issledovatel'skikh rabot v sfere upravleniya razvitiem elektronnoi komponentnoi bazy) [Assessing manpower and tangible costs (pricing of system R&D works as part of managing the electronic component base)]. Promyshlennaya politika v Rossiiskoi Federatsii = Industrial Policy in the Russian Federation, 2012, no. 4-6, pp. 46–49.
Lavrinov G.A., Khrustalev E.Yu. Metody prognozirovaniya tsen na produktsiyu voennogo naznacheniya [Methods of forecasting prices for military products]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2006, no. 1, pp. 87–96.
Lavrinov G.A., Podol'skii A.G. Tsenoobrazovanie na produktsiyu voennogo naznacheniya: ot zatratnoi k tsennostnoi kontseptsii [Pricing for military products: from the cost concept to the value concept]. Vooruzhenie i ekonomika = Armament and Economics, 2012, no. 1, pp. 58–65.
Lavrinov G.A., Podol'skii A.G. O gosudarstvennom upravlenii tsenoobrazovaniem na produktsiyu voennogo naznacheniya [On the State control of pricing for military products]. Natsional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost' = National Interests: Priorities and Security, 2014, no. 44, pp. 2–12.
Lavrinov G.A., Kozin M.N. Upravlenie riskami v sisteme gosudarstvennogo oboronnogo zakaza: monografiya [Risk management in the system of the State defense order: a monograph]. Saratov, Nauka Publ., 2010, 255 p.
Makeev S.P., Minaev V.N., Matievskii A.V., Lavrinov G.A., Latyshev N.V. Avtomatizatsiya protsessov upravleniya riskami programm i proektov v sfere gosudarstvennogo oboronnogo zakaza: monografiya [Automation of processes of managing risks associated with the State defense order programs and plans: a monograph]. Tver, Department of Military Economy and Finance Issues Publ., 2011, 368 p.
Modeli i metody avtomatizatsii upravleniya federal'nymi programmami v sfere gosoboronzakaza: monografiya [Models and methods for automation of managing the Federal programs in the State defense order: a monograph]. Tver, Department of Military Economy and Finance Issues Publ., 2014, 780 p.
Bykov A.A. Ekonomicheskaya i politicheskaya bezopasnost' – prioritetnye sfery upravleniya strategicheskimi riskami [Economic and political security is the priority areas for strategic risk management]. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis, 2011, vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 4–6.
Kolesnikov E.Yu. Ob otsenke neopredelennosti rezul'tatov analiza tekhnogennogo riska [On assessment of uncertainty of the technological risk analysis]. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis, 2012, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 8–46.
Krivov V. Problema riskov pri prinyatii upravlencheskikh reshenii [The issue of risks in taking managerial decisions]. Upravlenie riskom = Risk Management, 2000, no. 4, рр. 15–17.
Kuklin A.A., Nikulina N.L., Bystrai G.P., Naidenov A.S., Korobitsyn B.A. Diagnostika ugroz i riskov ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti regiona [Diagnosis of threats and risks of the region’s economic security]. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of Risk Analysis, 2013, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 80–91.
Rimer M.I., Kasatov A.D., Matienko N.N. Ekonomicheskaya otsenka investitsii [Economic evaluation of investment]. St. Petersburg, Piter Publ., 2007, 480 p.
Frolov K.V. Bezopasnost’ Rossii. Analiz riska and problem bezopasnosti [The security of Russia. Analyzing the risk and problems of security]. Moscow, Znanie Publ., 2006, 640 p.
Barseghyan L., Molinari F., O’Donoghue T., Teitelbaum J.C. The Nature of Risk Preferences: Evidence from Insurance Choices. American Economic Review, 2013, no. 103, pp. 2499–2529. doi: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2499
Bussière M., Imbs J., Kollmann R., Rancière R. The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, no. 5, pp. 75–84. doi: 10.1257/mac.5.3.75
Gourio F. Credit Risk and Disaster Risk. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 1–34. doi: 10.1257/mac.5.3.1
Kevin M.M., Topel R.H. Some Basic Economics of National Security. American Economic Review, 2013, no. 103, pp. 508–511.