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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

The method for determining the complexity of the research under the risk through its decomposition and formation of model researches

Vol. 8, Iss. 26, JULY 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 27 April 2015

Received in revised form: 13 May 2015

Accepted: 25 May 2015

Available online: 26 July 2015

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING IN ECONOMICS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 22-32

Bokov S.I. 46 Central Scientific-Research Institute of the Defence Ministry of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation
bokov.s.i@mail.ru

Podol'skii A.G. 46 Central Scientific-Research Institute of the Defence Ministry of Russia, Moscow, Russian Federation
podolskijag@mail.ru

Importance The article focuses on improving the methodological framework for determining the complexity of R&D supported with considerable State finance.
     Objectives The objective of the research is to corroborate the projected complexity of the research.
     Methods To meet the objective, we apply a systems analysis and risk assessment. To determine the complexity of the research, we suggest decomposing it into parts represented with tasks and interim tasks, general researches for coordinating tasks. It will reflect the specifics of the research process and ensures the correlation of labor input with performance indicators. The methodological solution comprehensively considers two principal factors that equally influence the complexity of R&D, experiments and the designing process, i.e. the complexity of scientific researches and stimulating the productivity as a result of fitting laboratories and experimental facilities with more sophisticated equipment that requires less labor input.
     Results The article combines and consolidates the process of determining the complexity of each task and interim task at the lower decomposition level, and risk assessment. For this, we formulate a special condition facilitating the identification of risk exposures. Such risk exposures arise because the projected complexity of a task or interim task is understated (for example, for dumping purposes) or overstated (for soliciting more State financial aid).
     Conclusions and Relevance The results of the research may prove useful for industrial and R&D organizations of the Russian Ministry of Defence to devise methods for determining the complexity of researches or as part of methods for assessing the initial (contractual) value, verifying projected complexity of tasks (interim tasks) and performing general work.

Keywords: risk, military industrial complex, R&D, labor input, task

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