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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Financial diagnostics of Russian enterprises with the Altman's model application for developed and emerging markets

Vol. 8, Iss. 7, FEBRUARY 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 9 February 2015

Subject Heading: CORPORATE FINANCE

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 37-45

L'vova N.А. Saint-Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
lvova_n.a@mail.ru

Importance The article dwells upon the topical issues of the financial diagnostics of the Russian enterprises. Methods and models of bankruptcy prediction form the methodological basis of the corporate financial diagnostics. Edward Altman proposed one of the most effective methodologies for bankruptcy prediction, which was based on the method of multiple discriminant analysis.
     Objectives Altman's discriminant models are well known and widely used in the Russian business practice. However, their relevance is often challenged. In this article, I have examined the appropriateness of the Altman' model application for the developed and emerging markets with respect to the Russian environment. In line with this objective, I have considered special models taking into account the possible directions of their use.
     Methods I studied the specific features of bankruptcy prediction methodology, proposed by Altman, as well as the evolution of the models, crowned with a wide range model for the developed and emerging markets. Taking into account the results of model testing with respect to the Russian enterprises, I have explored the promising directions for its use, according to the data of official financial statistics. As an example, the paper evaluates the financial solvency of the Russian enterprises in terms of certain types of economic activity.
     Results The Altman's model for the developed and emerging markets overcomes the significant limitations, which were commonly found in the earlier models. The results of recent empirical studies positively characterize its applicability potential for financial diagnostics of the Russian enterprises. The Z-score values, received according to the summary financial indicators of organizations, are able to serve as more effective indicators of their financial solvency than certain financial ratios.
     Conclusions and Relevance I emphasize that the Altman's discriminant model, which has proven its efficiency in bankruptcy prediction in the developed and emerging markets, may find successful application not only in the business practices of economic entities, but also in the work of regulatory authorities while substantiating the Russian entities' decisions on crisis management.

Keywords: financial diagnostics, bankruptcy, prediction, enterprise financial solvency

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