Importance The subject of the research is an analysis and evaluation of the risk level that occurs in case of enterprise merger through horizontal integration. Objectives The goal of the paper is to determine the efficiency of functioning of a horizontally-integrated gold mining company based on probabilistic assessment of risk. Methods We used probabilistic assessment techniques, graphical interpretation and analytical methods. The findings show the dependences between the parameters of probabilistic assessment of deviations from a deterministic net cash flow and risk levels of a horizontally-integrated gold-mining enterprise. The scope of application of the results may include a set of managerial decisions taken by gold mining company management. The function of business risk management, which includes risk analysis, allows taking early measures to prevent undesirable scenarios, and uncover hidden opportunities of enterprise development. The conscientious, rational attitude to risk extends the possibilities of successful management. Results The research found out that for sustainable functioning in the mineral raw materials market medium and small gold mining companies will have to either consolidate with each other or merge with larger mining organizations. Conclusions and Relevance Currently, the vector of small business development in the sectors of mineral complex is determined by the formation of new economic structures. This enables to improve the conditions of resource extraction and to create opportunities for strategic development of gold mining companies.
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