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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

External debt sustainability of the Russian economy: the dual estimates

Vol. 7, Iss. 47, DECEMBER 2014

Available online: 11 December 2014

Subject Heading: Financial market

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 2-14

Kul''kov V.M. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
viqma@migmail.ru

Tenyakov I.M. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
itenyakov@mail.ru

Importance The article analyzes the external debt sustainability in relation to modern Russia. During the complication of foreign economic and foreign policy environment for the Russian economy development, the issue of external debt and its perspectives assumes particular importance.
     Objectives The article aims to identify the true facts about the Russian debts, to overcome existing extreme approaches, both overly optimistic and especially pessimistic. We analyze the external debt and its structure. We place particular emphasis on the comparison of foreign liabilities and foreign assets of Russia, both in the national economy as a whole and in its separate institutional sectors. The paper considers the Russian international investment positions. We also analyze the specific indicators of the external debt sustainability of the country, and disclose their condition in the context of the national economic security.
     Methods As the methodological foundations of the study, we actively use: firstly, the comparative analysis method, which allows to compare various debt positions, the actual and threshold levels of external debt, the volumes of the Russian and foreign debt economies; secondly, the balance sheet method to correlate the external assets and liabilities and as a result to determine the balanced financial results of debt activity. The article includes the inventory of the volume and structure of the current Russian foreign debt, which has revealed the ambiguity of assessment of debt position of the modern Russian economy. Despite the formal favorable situation in terms of an external debt of Russia, there are warning signs. On the other hand, a high cumulative corporate debt is intermingled with significant external assets in various institutional sectors and the national economy as a whole.
     Results The research enabled to conclude about the ambivalence of debt position in Russia.
     Conclusions and Relevance The research suggests that this implies the need to strengthen the consistency and controllability of debt activity in the country. The debt activity must be more subordinated to the tasks of the national economic development.

Keywords: economy, Russia, debt sustainability, external debt, external assets, investment position, institutional sector

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