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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

How to deal with the problem of debt arrears of banks for retail credit

Vol. 7, Iss. 43, NOVEMBER 2014

Available online: 15 November 2014

Subject Heading: BANKING SECTOR

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 17-26

Zaernyuk V.M. Russian State University of Tourism and Service, Moscow, Russian Federation
zvm4651@mail.ru

Anashkina E.N. Russian State University of Tourism and Service, Moscow, Russian Federation
elena-anashkina@mail.ru

Importance The problems of the Russian Federation population debt load began deteriorating the quality indicators of the retail portfolios of the national banking sector organizations more evidently. The economic significance of decrease in level of debt arrears on retail credits for commercial banks' development and formation of a national banking system defined the main objective of the article and relevance of the questions considered in it.
     Objectives The article provides an analysis of the dynamics of volume and annual rate of an increase of payment delay on credits to the country's population for an intermediate quarter dates for the period of 2008-2014. We consider the structure of overdue portfolios and determine the main reasons for emergence of the citizens' debts to banks. We proposed an approach to segmentation of debts and factors, which need to be used as indicators in the course of support and service of a credit portfolio.
     Methods We demonstrated the tools used by the advanced banks for the similar segmentation - methods of statistical modeling (multidimensional polynomial regression, a logit model and the Monte-Carlo method) and mathematical modeling (simplified structurally functional models, imitating models). We used the results of the Russian scientists' findings in the field of credit risks management. The methodological basis of research was made by a system approach, the comparative analysis and the economic and statistical analysis methods.
     Results On the basis of analysis, we have concluded the need of development of proprietary tools and technologies of collecting directed on identification of early problem debt and to prevent payment delay.
     Conclusions and Relevance We came to a conclusion that the banks need to concentrate on development of proprietary tools and technologies of collecting directed on the identification of early problem of debt and prevention of debt arrears formation. That is possible only under the condition of monetary funds investment in the analytical and technological tools.

Keywords: non-banking credit organization, Russian banking system, assets, bank capital, prudential banking supervision

References:

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  2. Zaernyuk V.M. Analiz zavisimosti mezhdu indikatorami sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei i kreditnoi aktivnost'yu v rossiiskikh regionakh [An analysis of the dependence between socio-economic indicators and credit activity in Russian regions]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika – Regional economics: theory and practice, 2013, no. 21, p. 46–52.
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  7. Rasplata zaderzhivaetsya [The reckoning is delayed]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
  8. TsB RF ozhidaet rosta urovnya prosrochki v bankakh, orientirovannykh na potrebkreditovanie [The Central Bank of Russia expects a growth of payment delay level in banks oriented at consumer loans]. Available at: Link. (In Russ.)
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