Importance Under the condition of market economy, organizations' viability assessment by both internal personal and external users assumes an importance. Due to the rapid development of non-bank financial intermediary market, control and supervision of enterprises of this industry become increasingly relevant. Objectives The article attempts to construct a binary choice model for companies in the sector of non-banking financial intermediary to identify and predict their financial solvency. Methods The possibility of occurrence of a particular bankruptcy probability acts as a model forecast, not the value of the binary variable proper. The model calculates the summary indicator that varies from zero (the maximum risk of bankruptcy) to one (the minimal risk of bankruptcy), without any uncertainty ranges. The developed model is tested on a sample of 34 financial organizations, specialized in financial intermediary. To calculate the analyzed bankruptcy criteria, we used data reporting of the selected companies for 2012 (the year prior to bankruptcy). As the criteria for the assessment of solvency, we have chosen the following indicators: return on assets, return on equity, asset turnover, and asset turnover ratio of an enterprise to the amount of its short-term obligations. Results In order to solve the specified class of financial-economic objectives, we recommend our own approach, which ensures the more flexible and detailed assessment of the likelihood of bankruptcy of companies of the sector. Conclusions and Relevance The developed model application allows estimating the bankruptcy risk probability for the Russian non-bank financial intermediation companies, which ultimately helps to determine the management measures for its reduction or prevention.
Keywords: financial intermediary, non-bank financial organization, bankruptcy, binary choice model
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